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Thursday Night Football picks (WAS @ PHI)

#5

👇 S. Barkley: O 69.5 rush yards

Best Line: (Underdog - alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Saquon Barkley is set up to DOMINATE on the ground this week. Washington’s run defense is one of the league’s worst, allowing a league-high 5.23 YARDS PER CARRY TO RUNNING BACKS. That inefficiency leads to big plays, as they’ve also given up THE MOST 10+ YARD RUNS this season. Barkley thrives on explosive gains, and this matchup perfectly aligns with his ability to break free in open space. BUT it’s not just about big plays—Washington also surrenders THE 5TH-MOST RUSHING YARDS PER GAME TO BACKFIELDS, proving they consistently struggle to control the ground game. Barkley has remained efficient even in scoreless outings, and this contest provides the perfect opportunity for him to rebound in a big way. SO, with Washington’s defensive issues and Barkley’s talent in the trenches, this projection feels WAY TOO LOW. Expect him to CRUSH this number.

#4

👇 A.J. Brown: O 69.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

A.J. Brown thrives when defenses run man coverage, and this week is no exception. WASHINGTON PLAYS MAN COVERAGE AT THE 2ND-HIGHEST RATE IN THE NFL, creating a matchup tailor-made for Brown's strengths. Against man, Brown has been TARGETED on a massive 36.4% of his routes, and he doesn’t just get looks—he DOMINATES. He leads the league with 5.52 YARDS PER ROUTE RUN in these situations, showcasing his efficiency and explosiveness. BUT it’s not just the scheme. Washington’s defense has allowed the 5TH-MOST RECEIVING YARDS TO WIDE RECEIVERS this season, consistently struggling to contain high-level talents. And Brown is coming off another big game, where his 44-YARD CATCH helped seal the Eagles’ win against Dallas. SO, with Brown’s elite ability to separate and Washington’s ongoing issues defending receivers, this projection feels way too low. He’s built to CRUSH this number in what should be another highlight-reel performance.

#3

👇 D. Smith: O 39.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog - alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

DeVonta Smith might not be fully healthy, BUT this matchup sets him up to shine even in a limited role. Washington has been carved up by slot receivers, allowing 8.9 YARDS PER TARGET this season—THE 5TH-WORST MARK IN THE NFL. That’s a glaring weakness, and Smith has played INCREASED SLOT SNAPS this year, positioning him to exploit it directly. Even in last week’s game, where Smith dealt with limited practice, he still suited up and contributed, proving his resilience. Washington also allows the 4TH-MOST PASSING YARDS PER GAME TO WIDE RECEIVERS, giving Smith additional opportunities for volume. SO, with a clear pathway to capitalize on this defense’s struggles, this projection feels like a LOCK as long as he’s active on Thursday night.

#2

👇 T. McLaurin: U 69.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Terry McLaurin faces a brutal matchup against Philadelphia’s elite secondary. THE EAGLES ALLOW THE 2ND-FEWEST PASSING YARDS IN THE NFL this season, shutting down opposing aerial attacks consistently. Since their bye, they’ve locked down star WR1s like Ja’Marr Chase (54 yards), Amari Cooper (42 yards), and CeeDee Lamb (21 yards), proving their ability to neutralize top threats. BUT it gets worse for McLaurin—he relies heavily on deep targets, yet Philadelphia has allowed THE FEWEST EXPLOSIVE PASS PLAYS (20+ YARDS) IN THE LEAGUE. The Eagles have also limited WR1s to 53 OR FEWER RECEIVING YARDS in four straight games, and McLaurin doesn’t have the matchup or quarterback play to break that trend. SO, with Jayden Daniels completing just 50% of his passes last week and facing relentless pressure, McLaurin is in for a tough night. This projection feels WAY TOO HIGH against a defense firing on all cylinders.

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