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Thursday Night Football picks (PIT @ CLE)

#6

👇 G. Pickens: O 19.5 longest rec

Best Line: (Underdog- alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Pickens has been UNSTOPPABLE as a deep threat since Russell Wilson took over at quarterback, and this week is no exception. In all four games with Wilson, Pickens has posted a longest reception of at least 34 YARDS, making this projection feel LAUGHABLY LOW. His role as Pittsburgh's top target is unquestionable, commanding an elite 101 AIR YARDS PER GAME, 3RD-MOST among all wideouts over the last month.

BUT the real story here is Cleveland’s inability to contain big plays. The Browns allow the MOST YARDS AFTER CATCH to wide receivers in the league, making them vulnerable to explosive gains. Pair that with their 15.6 YARDS PER CATCH ALLOWED, also the WORST mark in the NFL, and it’s clear this secondary has no answer for deep threats like Pickens. With his 36.1% TARGET SHARE against man coverage—where Cleveland ranks 4TH in usage—Pickens is primed to DOMINATE.

SO, this pick is as automatic as it gets. Pickens has the perfect combination of volume, efficiency, and a favorable matchup to CRUSH this projection with ease.

#5

👇 E. Moore: U 19.5 longest rec

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Elijah Moore has struggled to stretch the field this season, and everything about this matchup points to another quiet day. He’s averaging just 5.5 YARDS PER TARGET, one of the LOWEST efficiency rates for wide receivers in the league. Additionally, his 9.7 YARDS PER CATCH from Winston shows he’s been primarily limited to short and intermediate routes, with almost no opportunities for big plays.

BUT Pittsburgh’s defense makes this an even steeper climb. They allow the 4TH-FEWEST COMPLETIONS on deep passes this season and have completely shut down slot receivers, giving up just 7.6 YARDS PER TARGET (11TH-BEST) and a league-low 1.4% TOUCHDOWN RATE to the position. Moore’s ability to go deep is further capped by Cleveland’s offensive line, which ranks 8TH-WORST IN PROTECTION, leaving little time for Winston to look downfield.

SO, the UNDER here feels locked in. Moore’s lack of big-play potential, combined with Pittsburgh’s stingy defense, makes clearing this projection nearly impossible.

#4

👇 J. Ford: O 1.5 rec

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Ford’s role as Cleveland’s primary pass-catching back has grown steadily, and this matchup sets up perfectly for him to shine. Since Week 9, he’s run routes on 54.7% OF TEAM PASSING PLAYS, compared to just 16% for Chubb, cementing his status as the go-to option in the backfield. With Cleveland expected to CHASE POINTS as 3.5-point underdogs, the game script should favor even more targets for Ford in passing situations.

BUT the real edge here comes from volume. Cleveland leads the league in PLAYS RUN PER GAME at 62.6, and this contest is projected to see the MOST COMBINED PLAYS RUN on the slate at 136.8. Ford is also projected for a MASSIVE 99TH-PERCENTILE TARGET SHARE among running backs (4.7 TARGETS), making this number feel WAY TOO LOW.

SO, this is a no-brainer. Ford’s elite route participation, combined with a perfect game script and Cleveland’s high-volume offense, makes him a LOCK to crush this projection.

#3

👇 P. Freiermuth: U 29.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog - alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Freiermuth’s production has been nearly non-existent this season, and there’s no reason to expect a turnaround in Week 12. He’s beaten this number only ONCE in his last six games, averaging just 23 YARDS PER GAME during that span. His target share has also dropped significantly, with Darnell Washington (10.8%) now commanding more looks in the passing game under Russell Wilson.

BUT Cleveland’s defense makes this an even tougher task. The Browns allow the 2ND-LOWEST COMPLETION RATE to tight ends and the 8TH-FEWEST YARDS PER TARGET, making them one of the most efficient units in the league against the position. On top of that, Pittsburgh is projected for the 2ND-FEWEST PASSING PLAYS this week, leaving Freiermuth with limited opportunities to produce.

SO, the UNDER is the CLEAR PLAY here. Freiermuth’s declining role, combined with a brutal matchup and low team volume, makes this number unattainable.

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