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I just posted 5 more plays for TNF… get in there!

Thursday Night Football picks (LAR @ SF)

#6

👇B. Purdy: O 229.5 pass yards

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Brock Purdy is set to DOMINATE this week, and here’s why. He leads the NFL in efficiency against zone defenses, averaging a staggering 9.6 yards per pass attempt, the HIGHEST in the league. This is critical because the Rams run zone on 77% of their defensive snaps, ranking 7TH-HIGHEST in the NFL. The Rams’ defense is a dream matchup for quarterbacks, allowing 8.24 adjusted yards per target this season—the 3RD-WORST mark in the league. They also give up the 3RD-MOST passing plays of 10+ yards and the 2ND-MOST plays of 20+ yards, highlighting their vulnerability to explosive plays.

But what seals the deal? Purdy has already PROVEN he can carve up this defense. In Week 3, he posted 292 passing yards and 3 touchdowns against the Rams, despite missing key weapons like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. With all his offensive pieces healthy, Purdy’s efficiency should only increase. Add his 73.1% completion rate against zone defenses (8TH-BEST in the NFL), and this projection feels like a gift. So lock this in—it’s a NO-BRAINER.

#5

👇J. Jennings: O 49.5 rec yards

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Jauan Jennings is primed to SMASH this number, thanks to his increasing role and a SOFT matchup. The Rams' secondary ranks as the 6TH-WORST in the NFL, allowing a league-high 9.1 yards per target to wide receivers. They’ve also given up the 3RD-WORST rate of explosive plays, with 29.1% of passing plays against them gaining 10+ yards. Jennings is projected for a 31.5% target share this week, putting him in the 96TH PERCENTILE among all wideouts—a significant jump from his season average of 26%.

But here’s the key: Jennings has become one of the league’s most efficient wide receivers, posting 10.55 adjusted yards per target, more than DOUBLE his efficiency from last season. He’s also seen a massive increase in air yards, now averaging 74.0 per game compared to just 26.0 last year. With the Rams' cornerbacks struggling mightily, Jennings has everything he needs to CRUSH this projection. So don’t overthink it—this pick is SOLID.

#4

👇 G. Kittle: O 3.5 rec

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George Kittle is a LOCK to clear this number, given his elite efficiency and the Rams’ defensive struggles. Kittle has surpassed 3.5 receptions in 9 of his 11 games this season, showing consistent production in both volume and efficiency. Against zone defenses, Kittle averages 3.16 yards per route—a number that skyrockets to 3.99 against Cover 3. This is crucial because the Rams use Cover 3 on 35.5% of their plays, ranking 8TH in the NFL.

The Rams' safeties have been TORCHED this season, ranking in the 10TH-WORST tier in defending tight ends. Meanwhile, Kittle is projected for 5.4 targets this week, landing him in the 88TH PERCENTILE among tight ends. His Adjusted Catch Rate of 85.8% highlights his unmatched reliability, and with the Rams struggling to contain players in his role, this number feels WAY-TOO-LOW. So Kittle easily clears this projection—it’s an OBVIOUS play.

#3

👇 C. Kupp: O 49.5 rec yards

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Cooper Kupp’s role in the Rams’ offense remains as strong as ever, making this number feel like a STEAL. The 49ers' slot coverage has been one of their biggest weaknesses, allowing 9.1 yards per target to slot receivers, the 26TH-WORST rate in the league. Kupp is expected to see 8.4 targets this week, placing him in the 92ND PERCENTILE among wideouts in usage.

What’s more, Kupp has been incredibly efficient this season, averaging 73.0 adjusted receiving yards per game despite splitting targets with Puka Nacua. With the Rams projected to throw on 60.7% of plays (the 9TH-HIGHEST rate this week), Kupp will have plenty of opportunities to capitalize. But here’s the kicker: Nacua’s emergence as the WR1 could lead to added defensive attention, freeing up Kupp to exploit space underneath. So this projection? It feels like FREE MONEY.

#2

👇 P. Nacua: O 5.5 rec

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Puka Nacua continues to DOMINATE as the centerpiece of the Rams’ passing attack, and this projection is far too low. Nacua leads all wide receivers in expected targets this week, sitting in the 100TH PERCENTILE with a projected 34.4% target share. His efficiency is unmatched—he averages 3.50 yards per route run, the BEST among receivers with 100+ routes this season.

The 49ers may rank 9TH in points allowed to outside receivers, but Nacua has already shown he can thrive against top-tier defenses. Over the past three games, he’s faced the Eagles and Bills—both ranked near the top in WR defense—and posted 9+ receptions in each matchup. With a 37.1% target rate on routes run (the HIGHEST in the league), Nacua’s role is secure. So with volume, efficiency, and matchup-tested performance all on his side, he SMASHES this number.

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