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- ✅ 🏈 Thursday Night Football picks (DEN @ NO)
Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.
Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.
We had an absolutely HISTORIC Sunday afternoon going 9-0 on our game of the week and anytime touchdown picks ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Tomorrow we’re turning $100 into $1,000 on TNF 👇 👇
By the way, my process starts and ends with EV Analytics, so I want to thank them for sponsoring today’s newsletter 👇
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Thursday Night Football picks (DEN @ NO)
#4
👇 B. Nix: O 19.5 rush yards
Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
Bo Nix is quickly emerging as a dynamic threat on the ground, rushing for 25+ yards in 5 of his last 6 games, including a career-high 61 yards just last week. But what many don’t realize is that Nix thrives against defenses like the Saints, who run man coverage at the 7th-highest rate in the league. Against man, Nix has scrambled on 11.6% of dropbacks—ranking 4th among QBs this season. So, with New Orleans struggling to stop mobile quarterbacks and allowing the 4th-worst efficiency against the run over the last 6 games, this 19.5 rushing yard projection is incredibly low. Expect Nix to easily exceed this mark in a high-play volume matchup.
#3
👇 S. Rattler: U 189.5 pass yards
Spencer Rattler had a rough NFL debut, tossing two picks and struggling under pressure, but some might think he’ll bounce back this week. But don’t be fooled—Rattler faces a Broncos defense that ranks 6th-fewest in passing yards allowed per game (198.0) over their last 6 matchups. The Saints are also projected to be one of the least pass-oriented teams this week, with a 53.3% pass rate, and their offensive line is the worst in the league for protecting the quarterback. So, with Denver boasting a top-4 pressure rate and Rattler’s shaky pocket presence, he’s unlikely to hit 182.5 yards in what’s shaping up to be a low-volume passing game.
#2
👇 D. Vele: O 3.5 rec
Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
Devaughn Vele has quietly been one of the Broncos' most reliable targets, leading the team in receiving yards last week and proving he can make big plays. But what you might not know is that the Saints defense has forced opponents to throw the 4th-most passes per game (40.5) over their last 5 contests, creating plenty of opportunities for Vele. So, with the Broncos likely to air it out more as slight underdogs, and Vele being a key piece in their passing attack, 3.5 receptions is a mark he should surpass. The Saints give up the 3RD-MOST receptions to slot WRs, and Vele runs a TEAM-HIGH 80% of his routes from the slot. So, with 12 catches over his last two games, this is the SAFEST play on the board.
✅ What did you think of todays picks? |