Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.

Week 16 already… Let’s get it 👇 👇

• 2x Bankroll Builder: Low-risk plays designed for steady, consistent growth—ideal for building a solid betting foundation.

• 3x Triple Up: Moderately aggressive plays that balance higher returns with reasonable risk—perfect for stepping up your game.

• 10x Long-Shot: High-risk, high-reward plays built for thrill-seekers—small stakes, big potential. Always play responsibly.

We’re already off and running!

I just posted 5 more plays for members… get in there!

Thursday Night Football picks (DEN @ LAC)

#5

👇 B. Nix: O 19.5 rush yards

Partners: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Bo Nix ALREADY SMASHED this number the last time these teams met, rushing for 61 yards against the Chargers. That wasn’t a fluke—this matchup sets up PERFECTLY for his mobility to shine again. BUT here’s what makes this number feel even safer: the Chargers are 26TH in rushing points allowed per game (3.8) to quarterbacks, showing a consistent inability to contain mobile QBs. Combine that with their 26TH-ranked sack rate, and it’s clear—LA struggles to generate pressure, which gives quarterbacks PLENTY of time and space to scramble.

Nix has proven he’ll take off when the opportunity presents itself. He ran for 23 yards last week, getting back on track with his legs in a comfortable win. While Denver didn’t need him to be aggressive on the ground, this Chargers defense ranks among the WORST in the league at stopping QBs from extending plays with their feet. In fact, they’ve struggled against QBs like Nix all season.

SO what’s the takeaway? Nix is a lock to clear 19.5 again in a matchup where LA’s weaknesses play directly into his strengths. If you’re looking for a QB with sneaky rushing upside and the matchup to back it up, this one feels TOO EASY.

#4

👇 C. Sutton: O 19.5 longest rec

Partners (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Courtland Sutton has been THE MODEL of consistency as Denver’s top deep threat, clearing 19.5 yards in 11 of 14 games this season—that’s 79% of the time. He’s averaging over 9 targets per game over his last 7, and when you combine that volume with his big-play ability, it’s no wonder he’s been so reliable. BUT here’s where it gets even better: the Chargers are vulnerable to deep passes, allowing a 39.4% completion rate on deep targets, which ranks 24TH in the league. This isn’t a new problem either—they’ve been getting beaten downfield all season.

Sutton ALREADY beat this number against the Chargers earlier this year, and the dynamics haven’t changed. He leads the Broncos in average target depth, which means every throw his way has the potential to hit this number in a SINGLE PLAY. On top of that, the Chargers give up 13.2 yards per catch to wide receivers, ranking 22ND, showing a consistent inability to limit explosive plays.

SO what does that mean for Sutton? It’s simple—he just needs one shot downfield to CRUSH this projection. With Nix continuing to look his way, this pick feels like a LOCK.

#3

👇 L. McConkey: O 4.5 rec

Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Ladd McConkey is the Chargers’ MOST RELIABLE weapon when defenses bring pressure, and the Broncos are the WORST matchup for that dynamic—Denver blitzes at the 2ND-HIGHEST rate in the NFL (36%). McConkey thrives in these situations, leading the Chargers with 34 targets against the blitz this season. BUT here’s where things get even more promising: McConkey runs 70% of his routes from the slot, which helps him AVOID Patrick Surtain, Denver’s elite outside corner.

Last week, McConkey showed no signs of slowing down, catching 5-of-7 targets against a blitz-heavy Buccaneers defense. With Herbert needing to make quick decisions under pressure, McConkey is the CLEAR go-to option to move the chains. Denver’s elite pressure rate will keep forcing those quick throws, and McConkey’s route-running and reliability in the short-to-intermediate game make him the PERFECT player to capitalize.

SO with Denver sending blitzes all night and McConkey already dominating in this role, 4.5 receptions feels WAY-TOO-LOW. He’s set up for another high-volume performance, and you should LOCK THIS IN with confidence.

#2

👇 S. Smartt: O 2.5 rec

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Stone Smartt stepped up in a BIG way last week, catching 5-of-6 targets in Will Dissly’s absence. Dissly’s likely OUT again after failing to practice on Monday, which leaves Smartt as the Chargers’ CLEAR TE1 heading into this matchup. BUT here’s why this pick is so sharp: the Broncos’ defense has quietly struggled against tight ends, allowing 5.3 receptions per game to the position, which ranks 19TH in the league.

What makes Smartt even more appealing is Justin Herbert’s tendency to lean on his tight ends when under pressure. Herbert targets the position on 23.6% of his throws, ranking 14TH in the NFL. With Denver blitzing at the 2ND-HIGHEST rate (36%) and bringing consistent pressure, Smartt will see PLENTY of opportunities for quick, high-percentage throws.

On top of that, Smartt accounted for 25% of the team’s targets in the second half last week once Dissly went down, proving he can handle a bigger role in this offense. SO with volume, matchup, and opportunity ALL in his favor, Smartt clearing 2.5 receptions feels as safe as it gets.

⬇️ Or just take today’s free money ⬇️

PrizePicks - Play $5 lineup, Win $50 instantly (link)

Underdog - up to $1,000 (link)

Sleeper - up to $1,500 (link)

Today’s 0.5 yard specials & bonus cash

Leveraging promotions and specials across sportsbooks is the #1 key to success in prop betting and pick'em.

By partnering with multiple apps, YOU’LL get access to the best lines and daily offers, enhancing your strategy and maximizing your chances at winning long term. Sign up and start with a guaranteed win (0.5 yard special) today…

👇 Try out PrizePicks (link)

Use code: NFLARMY

Win $50 instantly when you play your first $5 lineup

👇 Try out Underdog (link)

Use code: NFLARMY

Get your 1st deposit matched up to $1,000

👇 Try out Sleeper (link)

Use code: NFLARMY

Get your 1st deposit matched up to $1,500