- Joe’s Betting Picks (Early Drop List)
- Posts
- ✅ 🏈 Thursday Night Football picks (DAL @ NYG)
Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.
Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.
No one started NFL hotter than we did... going 9-1 on Thursday Night Football before completely selling in Week 3 when Aaron Rodgers decided to time-travel back to 2011.
Regardless, I'm gonna make up for that right now by turning $100 into $1,000 👇 👇
By the way, my process starts and ends with EV Analytics, so I want to thank them for sponsoring today’s newsletter 👇
Crush Your Bets with the Most Sophisticated NFL Projections!
• Lines move quickly, so don’t miss out on early Week 3 betting opportunities! Derek Carty’s football player prop projection model, THE BLITZ—now offered exclusively on EV Analytics—is here to help you stay ahead of the sportsbooks and bet like a pro.
• Leverage THE BLITZ's cutting-edge analytics and advanced projections to uncover hidden value in NFL player props the books aren't accounting for. Gain the confidence to make smarter bets with real-time data at your fingertips.
Take advantage of our 20% off NFL Full Season Premium on EV Analytics and start making smarter bets today—this offer won’t last long!
Get the discount → (link) 👀
|
Thursday Night Football picks (DAL @ NYG)
#5
👇 M. Nabers: O 6.5 rec
Best Line: (PrizePicks) (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
Malik Nabers is dominating the target share for the Giants, leading the team with 37.8% of their looks. But what most people overlook is that Nabers has had 20 targets in his last two games and is averaging almost 8 catches per game this season. The Cowboys' defense ranks 3rd-worst in the NFL for allowing yards after the catch to opposing wide receivers over the last 15 games, and they’ve struggled to contain WR1s. So, with the Cowboys running a defense that has consistently failed to limit playmakers, Nabers is in the perfect spot to hit more than 6.5 receptions, especially as the game projects to be one of the 2nd-highest in total plays this week.
#4
👇 E. Elliott: U 38.5 rush+rec yards
Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
Ezekiel Elliott’s role has continued to shrink, especially with Rico Dowdle taking the lead in back-to-back weeks. Elliott has only 12 touches in his last two games, showing a clear trend of declining usage. But here’s something most people don’t realize: the Giants' run defense ranks 2nd-best in the NFL in limiting yards per carry to opposing running backs over the last 10 games. So, with Elliott already losing touches and the Giants fielding one of the toughest run defenses, 38.5 total rushing + receiving yards is just too high, making the lower pick a strong play here.
#3
👇 D. Jones: O 31.5 rush yards
Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
Daniel Jones has quietly become one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league, consistently ranking in the top 10 for rushing attempts by QBs. But what many don’t realize is that the Cowboys’ defense has given up the 4th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year. So, with Jones expected to scramble in a fast-paced game, he’s in a prime position to hit more than 31.5 rushing yards, especially considering his ability to exploit gaps in the Cowboys' defensive line.
#2
👇 C. Lamb: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs
Best Line: (DraftKings) (FanDuel) (BetMGM) (Caesars)
CeeDee Lamb is overdue for a breakout, having only found the end zone once this season. But here’s what might surprise you: the Giants’ defense has allowed the three touchdowns to opposing WR1s already this year, and they’ve struggled mightily in the red zone. So, with Dak Prescott looking to get back on track and Lamb dominating red-zone targets, expect him to smash more than 0.5 touchdowns in this Thursday night matchup.
✅ What did you think of todays picks? |