Thanksgiving Way-Too-Early

Thanksgiving football is here. Three games, three chances to find the softest numbers on the board, here’s my best pick from each matchup… in two minutes or less

#3 - J. Gibbs: O 3.5 Receptions

Jahmyr Gibbs more than 3.5 receptions is built on elite usage and a perfect matchup. Over his last two games, Gibbs has completely taken over the Detroit backfield with 47 total opportunities and 410 scrimmage yards, proving he’s now the centerpiece of this offense. He’s caught 16 passes in that same stretch, giving him wide receiver-level volume from the running back position, while David Montgomery has only 15 total touches. But Green Bay continues to struggle against receiving backs, allowing the 7TH-MOST receptions to the position. So with Gibbs operating as Jared Goff’s safety valve and Detroit’s pace ranking among the fastest in the league, this number feels way too low. Four or more catches looks like his floor, not his ceiling.

#2 - R. Rice: O 71.5 Receiving Yards

Rashee Rice more than 71.5 receiving yards fits perfectly with how he wins against this coverage. Dallas plays zone defense on 79 percent of snaps, the 5TH-MOST in the NFL, and Rice leads Kansas City with a 37 percent target share against those looks. He’s cleared this number in 3 of his last 4 games, including a 141-yard performance last week, showing he’s firmly Mahomes’ top option in these situations. But the Cowboys have been one of the league’s most beatable secondaries, allowing the 4TH-MOST receiving yards to wideouts and a LEAGUE-HIGH 14 catches of 30 or more yards. So between the scheme, usage, and explosive-play upside, this projection looks soft for a player who can clear 75 yards in one or two drives.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Three games, three edges, and the fastest way to stay ahead on Thanksgiving is locking in the right numbers before kickoff

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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