Thanksgiving Locks

Thanksgiving football is loaded, and I’ve narrowed the entire slate down to the best overall bets of the day… in two minutes or less

#8 - J. Gibbs: O 3.5 Receptions

Gibbs owns a 70% SNAP RATE and 31% TARGET SHARE over his last two games, both SEASON HIGHS, and he’s caught 16 balls on 20 targets in that stretch. But Green Bay’s defense has been a PASS-CATCHING RB GOLD MINE, allowing the 7TH-MOST RB RECEPTIONS and over 100 total yards to backs in three of their last four. So with Gibbs running routes on nearly 70% of dropbacks and seeing 4, 8, and 12 targets across his last three, this number is WAY TOO LOW. Detroit leans on him whenever they trail, and he has stacked three straight weeks of double-digit receiving production, so the volume and matchup line up perfectly.

#7 - R. Rice: O 19.5 Longest Reception

Rice has gone for 42-plus yards in three of his last four games and just turned 12 targets into 141 yards in his latest outing. But the Cowboys rank 4TH-MOST in receiving yards allowed and have given up a LEAGUE-HIGH 14 receptions of 30-plus yards to wide receivers over their last five. They play zone on 79% of snaps, 5TH-MOST in the league, and Rice TORCHES zone for 3.44 YARDS PER ROUTE RUN with a 32% target rate. So with Mahomes facing a 5TH-RANKED PRESSURE RATE and needing a go-to option in space, Rice’s after-catch burst makes one 20-yard play feel almost automatic, especially against a defense that has been 2ND-WORST versus WR1s.

#6 - P. Mahomes: O 14.5 Rush Yards

Mahomes has cleared this number in five of his last seven games and is averaging a CAREER-HIGH 28.9 RUSHING YARDS PER GAME this season. But Dallas creates the MOST QB RUSH ATTEMPTS and allows the 3RD-MOST QB RUSHING YARDS, pairing that with a 5TH-RANKED PRESSURE RATE while blitzing at a low rate. That combination forces quarterbacks to scramble instead of checking down, and Mahomes already posted 30 rushing yards last week in a similar pressure environment. So with Kansas City operating one of the highest pass rates over expectation and this game carrying real playoff weight, he is set to use his legs early and often, making 15 yards feel like a very beatable number.

#5 - J. Williams: U 21.5 Rush Attempts

Williams controls 74% of Denver’s backfield usage but has only one game over 20 carries in his last eight. But Kansas City is a RUNNING BACK TRAP, allowing the 4TH-FEWEST RUSHING YARDS and facing the FEWEST RB ATTEMPTS in the entire league. Opposing backfields are averaging only 73.3 total rushing yards, 4TH-FEWEST, and teams consistently fail to establish volume on the ground against them. So even with a workhorse share, this matchup caps his rushing attempts and tilts Dallas toward the pass if they fall behind. Expect Williams to land closer to the mid-teens in carries, keeping this projection comfortably out of reach.

#4 - H. Butker: O 1.5 XP Made

Kansas City ranks TOP-5 in red-zone drives per game and 2ND in offensive plays per game over the last five weeks, which keeps Butker constantly involved. But the efficiency has been perfect, as he has averaged 2.2 extra points per game and hit MULTIPLE XPS in eight of his last nine contests while staying at 100% on extra point attempts this season. So in one of the HIGHEST PROJECTED TOTALS on the slate, two or more touchdowns from Mahomes is the baseline expectation. As long as the Chiefs finish drives like they have all year, Butker should clear this number with room to spare.

#3 - T. Loop: O 6.5 Kicking Points

Loop has cleared this number in three straight games and has averaged 11.7 KICKING POINTS over that span. But he now steps into a TOP-5 SCORING ENVIRONMENT with both offenses sitting inside the top tier in yards per drive and consistently reaching scoring range. He has logged MULTIPLE FIELD GOALS in three straight weeks, showing that his team is not just stalling but also trusting his leg from distance. So with steady red-zone trips and likely drives that end in three instead of seven, Loop has a very clean path to eight or more points again.

#2 - D. Henry: O 99.5 Rush Yards

Henry has handled 18 or more carries in six straight games and ranks TOP-3 in RB VOLUME since Week 6. But Cincinnati has been a DREAM MATCHUP for power backs, allowing the MOST RUSHING YARDS and 2ND-MOST RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS to running backs while giving up 5.1 YARDS PER CARRY, which sits 3RD-MOST in the league. They have also allowed a 55 percent success rate on RB runs, which is 30TH in the NFL and signals constant chunk gains on the ground. So with Henry already stacking six touchdowns and three runs of 40-plus yards since Week 8 and averaging over 20 rushes per game, this projection looks WAY TOO SMALL against a front that has not shown they can stop this style of runner.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Thanksgiving is loaded with value, and the edge comes from grabbing these numbers before the games kick off

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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