Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.

This might be the easiest game to predict in Week 10 👇 👇

Another newsletter I think you’ll love…

Sunday Night Football (DET @ HOU)

#5

👇 C. Stroud: 31.5 pass att

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

C.J. Stroud has faced a challenging season behind Houston’s offensive line, but this game sets up perfectly for volume. The Lions' defense has led opposing offenses into the most pass attempts per game in the NFL this year. But what makes this even more enticing is the matchup dynamics: Houston projects as a 60.9% pass-heavy team this week, and this game is expected to feature the 5th-most combined plays of any matchup on the slate. So, with the Texans entering as 3.5-point underdogs and forced into a throwing script, Stroud attempting more than 31.5 passes feels like a lock.

#4

👇 J. Goff: O 1.5 pass TDs

Best Line: (Underdog) (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Jared Goff has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the league this season, boasting a 75.3% adjusted completion rate that ranks in the 84th percentile among all NFL quarterbacks. The Texans’ defense, on the other hand, has been a prime target for quarterbacks, allowing the most passing touchdowns in the league this season and the highest touchdown rate on play-action passes at 8.1%. But what many might overlook is that Goff’s league-leading 38.9% play-action usage rate puts him in a perfect position to exploit Houston’s weakness. So, with this game being played in a dome, which eliminates external variables like weather, Goff has every opportunity to surpass this projection with ease.

#3

👇 A. St. Brown: O 59.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog - alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been nothing short of dominant, commanding a 28% target share, which ranks in the 97th percentile among all wideouts, and scoring in six consecutive games. Houston’s defense has struggled mightily against slot receivers, allowing the highest touchdown rate from the slot at 15.3% and giving up the 22nd-most points per game to WR1s over their last 10 contests. But what truly stands out is Houston’s inability to limit yards after catch, ranking 5th-worst in the NFL in that category. So, with St. Brown’s efficiency and Detroit expected to run one of the top-7 fastest-paced offenses this week, his chances of clearing this projection are exceptionally strong.

#2

👇 D. Montgomery: U 14.5 rush att

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

David Montgomery has been reliable, but the setup for this game significantly limits his upside. The Texans boast the 4th-highest success rate against backfield runs this season, limiting opposing backs to inefficient performances. But the bigger issue is volume—Detroit has run the 8th-fewest plays per game in the league this season, and Montgomery has seen 12 or fewer carries in four of his last five games. So, with Jahmyr Gibbs continuing to eat into his workload and Houston’s defense excelling in slowing down the run, this projection feels overly optimistic.