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Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.

This might be the easiest game to predict in Week 6 👇 👇

Another newsletter I think you’ll love…

Sunday Night Football (CIN @ NYG)

#5

👇 J. Chase: O 5.5 rec

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Ja'Marr Chase has been nothing short of unstoppable lately, coming off a massive 10-catch, 193-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 5. But here’s something most people don’t realize: despite Chase’s success, he hadn’t hit 10+ targets until last week. The Bengals are expected to pass at the 2nd-highest rate on the Week 6 slate, with 63% of their plays projected to be passes. The Giants have been shredded by wide receivers all season, allowing the 8th-highest completion rate to WRs over the last 25 games. So, with Chase’s increased target share and the Bengals’ pass-heavy game script, it’s a near-lock for him to hit higher than 5.5 receptions in this matchup.

#4

👇 D. Slayton: O 39.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Darius Slayton took full advantage of Malik Nabers being sidelined last week, grabbing eight catches for 122 yards. But what many overlook is his growing role in this offense—he’s projected to receive 24% of the team’s targets this week, a big jump from his usual 16%. The Bengals’ defense has been vulnerable to wideouts, giving up the 8th-most receiving yards per game to opposing WRs over their last 15 games. So, with the Giants likely to lean on the pass as 4.5-point underdogs, expect Slayton to easily go higher than 39.5 receiving yards as he steps up once again.

#3

👇 D. Jones: O 29.5 rush yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Daniel Jones has quietly been effective on the ground, rushing for 38 yards in his last game. But here’s what most people might not realize: the Bengals have allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards to quarterbacks over the last 10 games, making this a prime spot for Jones to do damage with his legs. Jones is also projected to rank 6th in rush attempts among QBs this week. So, with the Giants expected to face a lot of pressure from Cincinnati’s defense, Jones will have plenty of opportunities to break past the 29.5 rushing yards mark, making this a smart play for today.