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Stefon Diggs’ box score dipped last week, but his usage and alignment keep his explosive-play upside intact.

• Has cleared this number in three of his last four games
• Houston has allowed wide receiver catches of 66, 53, 30, 25, 23, and 21 yards over the last two weeks
• Diggs ran a route on 85% of dropbacks last game, his second-highest rate of the season, while playing 52% of his snaps from the slot, where Houston allows 8.0 yards per target, ranking 17th

When routes spike and the defense keeps leaking chunk plays, one explosive catch is enough.

Hunter Henry’s weekly volume fluctuates, but his role near the end zone keeps his yardage path intact.

• Has surpassed this number in three straight games
• Owns 33.8% of New England’s red-zone targets, the highest share among tight ends
• Houston allows just 6.1 yards per target to tight ends, ranking 4th, but has allowed a 6.2% touchdown rate to the position, ranking 22nd

When red-zone usage drives opportunity, Henry’s yardage clears on limited volume. My #1 pick is another Patriot, but his rushing opportunities may be more limited than most expect.

Rhamondre Stevenson’s efficiency on the ground faces resistance, but his receiving role continues to shine.

• Has cleared this number in six straight games, including 75 receiving yards in Round 1
• Running backs account for 22.9% of Houston’s receptions allowed, the sixth-highest rate in the league
• Houston allows 7.4 yards per reception to running backs out of the backfield, ranking 20th

When rushing lanes tighten, Stevenson’s production shifts to the passing game.

Kayshon Boutte’s role and alignment place him in the toughest version of this matchup.

• Has cleared this number just once over his last four games
• Houston allows the fourth-fewest receptions to wide receivers and a league-low 54.5% catch rate
• Boutte plays 90% of his snaps out wide, where Houston allows just 7.8 yards per target, ranking 5th

When volume is inconsistent and efficiency disappears on the perimeter, yardage becomes hard to come by.

C.J. Stroud’s ceiling narrows in non-spike matchups, and this spot fits that profile.

• New England has allowed the ninth-fewest passing yards and has held opponents under 200 yards in nine straight games
• Stroud’s spike fantasy weeks came only in clear favorable matchups, none of which mirror this setting
• Houston is expected to be without Nico Collins, with Stroud’s yards per attempt and touchdown rate dropping without him

When matchup strength and personnel losses collide, passing volume stays capped.

Pat Freiermuth: U 34.5 Rec Yards cashed last MNF. Finished with 1 catch for 18 yards

My next #1 pick is below.