NFL Sunday Early-Only

Football is officially back. The market always slips on a few spots, and Sunday’s early-only slate is no different. Here are my best picks… in two minutes or less.

#5 - J. Jeudy: O 57.5 Rec Yards

Jeudy has crushed this number in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging a massive 96.2 yards per game over that stretch. But it’s not just the production, it’s the matchup. Cincinnati’s secondary regressed hard in 2024. Cam Taylor Britt and Geno Stone both took noticeable steps back, and the Bengals made zero meaningful upgrades to fix it. New scheme, same holes.

So against a defense that’s both vulnerable and unproven, Jeudy walks into a favorable setup with a strong camp connection to Flacco. This is a case of recent form meeting a secondary in decline. His last 10 pace clears this number by nearly 40 yards, and that kind of gap gives us a clear edge. This is one of the most undervalued lines on the board.

#4 - J. Meyers: O 3.5 Catches

Meyers cleared this in 15 of 17 games last season, averaging around six catches per game with consistent usage across all game scripts. But now in 2025, the environment around him gets even better. Geno Smith is a clear quarterback upgrade, and Chip Kelly’s new offense is expected to be one of the fastest paced in the league.

That means more plays, more dropbacks, and more chances for Meyers to get his usual volume. So 3.5 is not just beatable, it’s well below the floor he established last year. For a guy who already smashed this line in nearly every game, with added pace and quarterback stability, this number feels like a rare low-risk, high-confidence prop to anchor your slip.

#3 - T. Tracy: O 54.5 Total Yards

Tracy hit this number in 9 of his last 10 games to end 2024 and enters the new season as the starting running back for the Giants with no competition for touches. But the best part is the matchup. Washington allowed the third most rushing yards in the league last year and gave up a brutal 3.18 yards before contact per carry. That was one of the worst marks in football.

They also lost Jonathan Allen in free agency and replaced him with a clear downgrade in Javon Kinlaw. So combine a soft front, massive holes at the line, and a confirmed bellcow role, and you get a back who’s set up to clear this line with both volume and efficiency. Tracy’s profile is built for this type of spot, and 54.5 does not account for how many yards he gains before defenders even touch him.

#2 - K. Murray: O 250.5 Total Yards

Over his final 8 starts last season, Kyler averaged 285 total yards per game with a clean dual-threat profile that offers multiple ways to beat defenses. But what really tilts this prop is the opponent. The Saints allowed the sixth most passing yards and the second most rushing yards in 2024. That’s a defense struggling in both dimensions.

So when you give a mobile quarterback like Kyler that kind of runway, his path to 250.5 becomes wide open. This number is well below his recent average and doesn’t reflect how soft the matchup truly is. Whether it’s designed runs or broken plays, Murray has multiple paths to production. This is one of the sneakiest dual-threat overs on the slate.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Sunday mornings move fast—so if you see a soft number in the early slate, jump on it before it’s gone.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe