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Travis Etienne’s scoring profile is built on volume and red-zone trust, and this matchup maximizes both.

• Finished with 13 total touchdowns, the 6th-most among running backs, confirming elite scoring output
• Ranked 4th in the NFL with 60 red-zone touches, keeping weekly touchdown equity high
• Buffalo has allowed the most rushing touchdowns to running backs and the highest share of fantasy points to the position

When elite red-zone usage meets the league’s most running back–friendly touchdown defense, one score is the expectation.

DeVonta Smith’s box scores dipped, but his underlying role stayed elite, and this matchup unlocks it.

• From Week 7 through Week 17, Smith ranked top-eight in target share at 27.8 percent and air-yard share at 37.6 percent
• San Francisco ranks last in DVOA versus wide receiver twos and allows the eighth-most receptions to wide receivers
• The 49ers give up the second-highest share of wide receiver catches from the slot, where Smith runs 54 percent of his routes

When role strength meets alignment weakness, five catches becomes the baseline outcome. My #1 pick on this slate is another wide receiver set up to be heavily funneled targets and receptions.

Jalen Hurts’ passing efficiency held steady all season, and the matchup removes pressure-based risk.

• Threw 25 passing touchdowns, a career high, with a 1.3 percent interception rate, his lowest as a starter
• San Francisco allows the second-most completions and ranks last in sack rate at 3.3 percent
• Over the final 12 games, the 49ers ranked bottom-three in completion defense and 30th in pressure rate at 30.4 percent

When a completion-funnel defense can’t disrupt the pocket, this yardage number clears on volume alone.

George Kittle remains efficient, but this matchup consistently erases tight end ceilings.

• Philadelphia allows the fewest receiving yards and fewest yards per target at 4.9 to tight ends
• The Eagles give up a league-low 2.9 percent touchdown rate and the fewest points per target at 1.29
• This defense has separated itself as the strongest tight end–stopping unit in the league all season

When the toughest tight end defense controls both volume and efficiency, this number sits too high.