NFL Sunday Afternoon-Only

The Sunday chaos starts early. Football’s back, and this afternoon slate is full of spots the market flat-out missed. Let’s run through my top picks in two minutes or less.

#5 - C. Ridley: O 51.5 Rec Yards

Calvin Ridley quietly ended 2024 on a tear, averaging 70.5 receiving yards over his final 11 games and clearing this number in 82 percent of those matchups. His usage wasn’t just steady, it was elite. Ridley ranked in the 99th percentile in air yards at 106 per game, proving he was consistently targeted deep and often. He also posted a 93rd percentile WOPR, a key stat that combines target share and air yard share, giving us a full picture of high-value opportunity. This isn’t a wide receiver being force-fed screen passes. This is a field-stretcher commanding real downfield volume.

But the matchup somehow makes it even better. The Broncos defense allowed the 9th-most receiving yards and 6th-most receptions to wide receivers last season, and functioned as a true pass funnel, forcing opponents to throw at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL at 36.6 attempts per game. On top of that, this game projects as a negative game script for Ridley’s side, with Tennessee entering as an 8-point underdog. That’s exactly the kind of setup that boosts target volume for WR1s.

So when you give a downfield alpha this kind of pass-heavy environment, with elite usage, historical consistency, and a soft matchup, this number feels laughable. Ridley is projected for 8 targets this week and is forecasted in the 89th percentile among all wide receivers. This is a spot to take advantage before the market catches up.

#4 - C. Kupp: O 3.5 Catches

Cooper Kupp’s role may have shifted, but the volume hasn’t gone anywhere. He still averaged 5.5 catches per game last year, ranking in the 89th percentile in adjusted receptions, and operated with a strong 24.2 percent target share, which lands him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers. That’s the profile of a player who still commands first-read attention in the offense. The projections agree. Kupp is expected to see 6.4 targets in Week 1, which places him in the 77th percentile this week.

But what elevates this from good to great is what’s coming out of camp. Reports say he and Sam Darnold have already built strong timing and chemistry, with Darnold looking to Kupp early and often during practices. Despite a new quarterback, the projected role is holding firm. With Kupp healthy and full-go, the system clearly still flows through him underneath.

So this number just doesn’t match the setup. If Kupp is seeing 6 or more targets, and has a long-term average over 5 catches per game, then 3.5 receptions is too low to ignore. This is a projection that gets cleared on volume alone.

#3 - R. Harvey: O 39.5 Total Yards

RJ Harvey enters Week 1 with a sneaky-clear path to volume, and the context around him is screaming value. The Broncos are 8-point favorites, and our trusted projection model has them running the ball on 46.6 percent of plays, the 3rd-highest rate on the slate. This is the exact type of game script we want for a depth-chart running back who’s expected to mix in on early downs or after the game is in control.

But this isn’t just about Denver’s side. The Titans defense is built to be run on. Last season, they allowed the 7th-most rushing yards in football and consistently struggled to slow down opposing backfields. Even with Dobbins named the technical starter, Harvey is locked into real usage, especially in a game script where Denver can bleed the clock late. And let’s be clear, this contest is not projecting as a fast-paced shootout. That actually helps Harvey, as fewer possessions with a lead usually translates to more clock control and more carries.

So whether you believe in the blowout or just trust the volume projections, the setup for Harvey is ideal. He doesn’t need a full workload to clear this. Just a normal rotation in a run-heavy game plan. 40 total yards is well within range.

#2 - E. Engram: O 3.5 Catches

Evan Engram might be the most underpriced tight end on the board this week. He missed this number just once all of last season, and closed the year averaging 40 adjusted yards per game, ranking in the 83rd percentile at the position. His usage wasn’t hollow either. He ranked in the 91st percentile in air yards among tight ends at 40.0 per game, a key sign that he wasn’t just getting short-area dump-offs but was consistently involved in real route concepts.

But the matchup couldn’t be better. The Titans allowed the 7th-highest adjusted completion rate at 78 percent to tight ends last season. That creates exactly the kind of high-efficiency setup Engram thrives in. And it doesn’t stop there. Jacksonville’s offensive line is also elite in pass protection, ranking as the best in football last season in protecting the quarterback. That gives Lawrence time to let plays develop and hit tight ends like Engram across the middle.

So when you put a reliable, high-volume tight end into an efficiency-driven matchup with clean pockets and a proven floor, you’re getting a spot that should be auto-fire. 3.5 receptions just isn’t a fair projection here.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. The afternoon slate always gets overlooked, but the edge is right here—strike before these numbers disappear.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe