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Week 17 may be the easiest slate of the year 👇 👇

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We’re already off and running!

I just posted 10 more plays for Sunday… get in there!

Sunday Night Football (TB @ DAL)

NOTE: You can adjust with alt lines to get these numbers if they are bumped.

#4

👇 J. Daniels: O 1.5 Pass TDs

Best Multiplier: (Underdog) USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Jayden Daniels is playing at an ELITE LEVEL, throwing MULTIPLE PASSING TOUCHDOWNS in FOUR STRAIGHT GAMES, including a career-best FIVE TOUCHDOWNS against a top-tier Eagles defense in Week 16. This wasn’t just a lucky break—Daniels has been surgical, capitalizing on his opportunities even against strong competition. Now, he faces a Falcons defense that has been a GIFT to opposing quarterbacks all season, allowing the MOST PASSING TOUCHDOWNS in the NFL (1.87 per game) and ranking 4TH-WORST in ADJUSTED COMPLETION RATE (73.8%). BUT it gets even better—Atlanta’s defensive tendencies lean heavily toward giving up volume. Opposing teams have averaged the 9TH-MOST PASS ATTEMPTS against them, and Washington is projected to run the 9TH-MOST PLAYS of any offense this week (66.5). Daniels’ ability to extend drives with his legs (49.1 rushing yards per game) further cements this as a HIGH-CEILING opportunity.

SO, with a matchup tailor-made for scoring through the air and Daniels operating at his peak, this number feels like a LOCK. Expect him to keep his hot streak alive with ease.

#3

👇 T. McLaurin: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

Best Multiplier: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Terry McLaurin is the DEFINITION of a red-zone weapon, leading the NFL with 10 TOUCHDOWNS on throws into the end zone this season. He’s been the centerpiece of Washington’s scoring attack, commanding a MASSIVE 46.7% SHARE of the team’s END-ZONE TARGETS—2ND-HIGHEST in the league. Now he faces an Atlanta defense that has been TORCHED by WR1s, allowing the 31ST-MOST POINTS PER GAME to lead receivers and ranking 26TH in TOUCHDOWN RATE against them (7.3%). BUT Atlanta’s struggles go beyond just volume—they’ve allowed the HIGHEST ADJUSTED COMPLETION RATE (70.7%) to WRs this season, making it easier for players like McLaurin to capitalize on opportunities. With Jayden Daniels operating one of the league’s most aggressive offenses (10TH-MOST PLAYS PER GAME), McLaurin’s scoring chances remain high.

SO, against a defense that can’t stop WR1s and a quarterback who thrives in the red zone, this pick feels like a NO-BRAINER. McLaurin’s track record and Atlanta’s weaknesses make this a PERFECT STORM for him to hit paydirt.

#2

👇 Bijan Robinson: O 59.5 rush yards

Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Bijan Robinson has been DOMINATING defenses all season, and his recent form is UNMATCHED. He’s cleared 100 SCRIMMAGE YARDS in 9 OF HIS LAST 10 GAMES while handling 63.9% of Atlanta’s rushing workload—highlighting his role as a workhorse. This week, he faces a Commanders defense that has been an ABSOLUTE DISASTER against the run, allowing the 8TH-MOST RUSHING YARDS PER GAME (132.0) and giving up EXPLOSIVE RUNS at the HIGHEST RATE in the league (13.4% of RB carries go for 10+ yards). BUT Washington’s issues don’t stop there—they’ve allowed more yards before contact per carry than any other team, making this an IDEAL matchup for Robinson’s dynamic running style. Atlanta’s game script also works in his favor, as the team is projected to run on 49% of plays, the 4TH-HIGHEST RATE of the week.

SO, with Robinson’s CONSISTENT VOLUME (22+ carries in 4 straight games) and Washington’s glaring defensive flaws, this number is WAY TOO LOW. Expect Robinson to CRUSH this projection.

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Monday Night Football (NO @ GB)

NOTE: You can adjust with alt lines to get these numbers if they are bumped.

#5

👇 A. St. Brown: O 59.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the NFL’s most dependable target hogs, and this projection feels WAY TOO LOW for someone of his caliber. He boasts an ELITE 27.4% TARGET SHARE this season (94TH PERCENTILE), which guarantees him consistent volume in every game script. He’s projected for 9.0 TARGETS this week (93RD PERCENTILE), and that kind of opportunity is hard to fade. BUT what makes this pick even more appealing is San Francisco’s glaring weakness against slot receivers. The 49ers are allowing 9.1 YARDS PER TARGET to slot receivers this season (29TH-WORST), and St. Brown runs 42% of his routes from the slot.

What’s more, Detroit’s offense is built to maximize his skill set. They rank 3RD-BEST in offensive yards per play (6.2), and with a 27-POINT IMPLIED TOTAL (4TH-HIGHEST THIS WEEK), the Lions are expected to move the ball effectively against San Francisco’s defense. SO, even though the 49ers have limited perimeter WR1s like Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb, St. Brown’s ability to exploit the middle of the field makes him the OBVIOUS choice to crush this number.

#4

👇 J. Jennings: O 59.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Jauan Jennings is in a PRIME SPOT to outperform expectations against a Lions defense that has been a PASS-FUNNEL all season. Detroit has allowed the 2ND-MOST adjusted receiving yards per game to wide receivers (176.0) and has been particularly vulnerable over the past month, giving up 188.8 RECEIVING YARDS PER GAME to the position (29TH-MOST). BUT the most significant edge lies in Jennings’ ability to operate from the slot, where he runs 31% of his routes. Detroit has allowed the MOST RECEIVING YARDS PER GAME (82.5) to slot receivers, which sets Jennings up for a big day.

Jennings is projected for 8.6 TARGETS this week (90TH PERCENTILE), and he’s one of the 49ers’ most efficient options, averaging 9.79 ADJUSTED YARDS PER TARGET (85TH PERCENTILE). With San Francisco entering this matchup as 3.5-POINT UNDERDOGS, a pass-heavy script is likely, increasing Jennings’ chances of delivering another breakout performance. SO, with all signs pointing to Detroit struggling to contain wideouts, Jennings is poised to SMASH this projection.

#3

👇 G. Kittle: O 49.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

George Kittle is coming off another DOMINANT performance, and this projection feels LAUGHABLY LOW given his recent form and matchup dynamics. Kittle has been ELITE this season, leading all tight ends with 12.4 ADJUSTED YARDS PER TARGET (97TH PERCENTILE) and accumulating 330 RECEIVING YARDS AGAINST THE BLITZ (MOST IN THE NFL). Detroit’s defense blitzes on 32% OF DROPBACKS (4TH-MOST), meaning Kittle will have plenty of high-value opportunities as Brock Purdy’s go-to option under pressure.

BUT Detroit’s struggles against tight ends go beyond blitzing. Over the last four games, the Lions have allowed 11.2 YARDS PER CATCH to the position (25TH-WORST), a significant step back from their early-season form. With Kittle projected for 7.3 TARGETS this week (96TH PERCENTILE), he has the volume and efficiency to DESTROY this number. SO, in a game where the 49ers are expected to throw frequently as underdogs, Kittle is an EASY LOCK to crush his projection.

#2

👇 J. Gibbs: O 99.5 rush+rec

Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Jahmyr Gibbs is in a PERFECT POSITION to dominate in this matchup, combining opportunity, efficiency, and versatility. With David Montgomery out, Gibbs is projected for a MASSIVE 71.7% CARRY SHARE (97TH PERCENTILE), solidifying his role as Detroit’s workhorse. He’s been one of the league’s most efficient runners, averaging 5.79 YARDS PER CARRY (97TH PERCENTILE), and his ability as a pass-catcher adds another layer of upside. Gibbs leads all running backs with 11.00 YARDS AFTER CATCH, making him a NIGHTMARE for defenses in the open field.

BUT San Francisco’s defense has been vulnerable to versatile backs like Gibbs. They’ve allowed 100+ TOTAL YARDS to RBs in 4 OF THEIR LAST 5 GAMES, including big performances from De’Von Achane and James Cook. What’s more, Detroit’s offense ranks 4TH-HIGHEST IN IMPLIED TOTALS (27 POINTS) this week, ensuring plenty of scoring opportunities. SO, with Gibbs’ dual-threat ability and the 49ers’ struggles containing dynamic backs, this number feels WAY TOO LOW.

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