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Week 15 may be the easiest slate of the year 👇 👇

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I just posted 10 more plays for Sunday… get in there!

Sunday Night Football (GB @ SEA)

NOTE: You can adjust with alt lines to get these numbers if they are bumped.

#5

👇 J. Love: U 269.5 pass yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Jordan Love’s deep-ball efficiency has been impressive this season—ranking 6TH in yards per attempt (8.3) and 3RD in air yards per throw (9.2)—BUT Green Bay’s offensive strategy has significantly capped his ceiling. Over the past month, the Packers have shifted to a run-heavy approach, posting the 2ND-LOWEST dropback rate in the league (46.6%). Love is averaging just 22 pass attempts per game in that span, with a high of only 28. That kind of volume makes it tough to hit inflated numbers like this, especially against a defense like Seattle’s. The Seahawks have allowed the 6TH-FEWEST passing yards per game this season (218.0), and they’ve been even better at defending the deep ball—allowing a 7TH-BEST completion rate on throws of 10+ yards since Week 9 (41.2%). AND Seattle’s ability to generate pressure without blitzing neutralizes quarterbacks who thrive on taking shots downfield, like Love. With Green Bay projected to run the 9TH-LEAST pass-heavy offense this week (55.2% pass rate), this matchup CLEARLY favors the under. SO, Love’s limited volume and the Seahawks’ ELITE pass defense make this number WAY TOO HIGH to trust

#4

👇 J. Reed: U 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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Jayden Reed has flashed potential this season, BUT his recent usage tells a different story. Over the past month, Reed has ZERO red-zone targets and has been held to three or fewer receptions in three of his last four games. That inconsistency is compounded by Green Bay’s offensive tendencies—they rank 6TH-LOWEST in plays per game (55.2), which limits opportunities for everyone in the passing game. AND the matchup against Seattle’s defense is BRUTAL for a slot receiver like Reed. The Seahawks have allowed a league-low 6.3 yards per target to slot receivers and rank 5TH-FEWEST in adjusted receiving yards allowed to WRs this season. Their safeties also grade out as the 3RD-BEST unit in pass coverage, making it even harder for Reed to find space in critical areas of the field. With Green Bay leaning on the run and Seattle locking down the middle of the field, the chances of Reed finding the end zone are SLIM. SO, in this matchup, Reed feels like an OBVIOUS fade.

#3

👇 D. Metcalf: O 49.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

DK Metcalf is poised for a BIG game against Green Bay. He’s averaging 110 air yards per game this season—an improvement from last year—and remains Seattle’s top downfield threat. BUT the real edge here comes from the matchup. Green Bay’s defense is notably SOFTER against outside receivers, allowing 8.5 yards per target (19TH) and a 5.1% touchdown rate (16TH). AND Packers CB Jaire Alexander has been ruled out, removing Green Bay’s best corner from the equation. The Seahawks are projected to pass on 60.3% of their plays this week (10TH-HIGHEST), which will naturally increase Metcalf’s opportunities to make an impact. With Seattle expected to run a high-paced offense and Metcalf facing weakened coverage on the perimeter, this number feels WAY TOO LOW. SO, expect Metcalf to EXPLOIT this matchup and CLEAR this projection with ease.

#2

👇 J. Jacobs: O 74.5 rush+rec yards

Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Josh Jacobs has been a WORKHORSE for Green Bay, commanding 90% of the backfield touches since Week 10 while averaging 22.3 touches per game. That elite workload puts him in the top tier of running backs for volume. BUT the matchup here is just as favorable as the opportunity. Seattle has allowed 156 total yards and a receiving touchdown to Arizona RBs last week and another 119 yards and a receiving score to the Jets in Week 13. That’s a clear sign of weakness against versatile backs who can contribute in both phases. AND while Seattle has improved as a run-stopping unit, their recent 4.4 yards per carry allowed to RBs since their bye (21ST) highlights ongoing struggles to stop runners at the second level. On top of that, Seattle ranks 28TH in receiving points allowed to backfields, giving up 11.1 points per game through the air. With Jacobs excelling as a tackle-breaking force and thriving in both rushing and receiving roles, he’s perfectly positioned to take advantage of a defense that can’t seem to lock down dual-threat backs. SO, with Jacobs’ ELITE usage and Seattle’s vulnerabilities, this number feels WAY TOO LOW. He’s LOCKED IN to SMASH it.

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MNF Double-Header (CHI @ MIN) (ATL @ LV)

NOTE: You can adjust with alt lines to get these numbers if they are bumped.

#6

👇 Bi. Robinson: O 69.5 rush yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Bijan Robinson has been a consistent force for Atlanta, averaging 86.5 rushing yards per game over his last eight contests and clearing this projection in six of those matchups. This week, he faces a Raiders defense that has struggled to contain opposing backfields, allowing 4.48 yards per carry (19TH) and surrendering 174 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns to Tampa Bay just last week. BUT Robinson’s value isn’t just in his matchup—he’s been the centerpiece of Atlanta’s offense, handling 72.7% of backfield touches and averaging 22.9 touches per game over his last eight outings.

The Falcons are the 6TH-MOST RUN-HEAVY TEAM in the league when adjusted for context, and Robinson’s workload ensures he’ll have plenty of opportunities to wear down this porous defense. SO with a favorable game script, elite usage, and a Raiders defense ranked 29TH in turnover differential (leading to shorter fields), Robinson is poised to DOMINATE this projection.

#5

👇 D. London: O 59.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Drake London has a dream matchup this week against a Raiders defense that struggles mightily against slot receivers. Las Vegas allows the 25TH-MOST points to slot WRs, giving up 8.4 yards per target and a 29TH-RANKED touchdown rate (9.2%) in those matchups. London’s versatility gives him an edge here—he thrives against man coverage, where he’s targeted on 34.4% of routes, and the Raiders play man at the 8TH-HIGHEST rate in the NFL.

BUT it’s not just the matchup favoring London—his role in Atlanta’s offense is also expanding. London has seen a 28.9% target rate this season, a significant jump from last year, and the Falcons run the 10TH-MOST plays per game (58.8), creating ample opportunities for production. SO with this game being played in a dome that enhances passing efficiency, London is set to exceed this projection and continue his strong season as the focal point of Atlanta’s aerial attack.

#4

👇 S. Darnold: O 239.5 pass yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Sam Darnold has been a revelation for Minnesota, coming off a career-best performance where he posted 347 yards and five touchdowns against Atlanta while completing 78.6% of his passes. Now, he faces a Bears defense that has been one of the league’s most exploitable units. Chicago has allowed the 2ND-MOST passing yards per attempt (8.4) since Week 7 and has given up a LEAGUE-HIGH 6.6 yards per play over that span. BUT it’s not just Chicago’s inefficiency—Darnold has also excelled, going four straight games without an interception while connecting repeatedly with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.

The Vikings offense ranks 6TH-BEST in yards per passing play (7.2), and with Chicago allowing opponents to score on just 23.9% of road drives (the worst in the league), Minnesota should dominate time of possession and create plenty of opportunities for Darnold to air it out. SO with the Vikings entering as 7-point favorites in a controlled dome environment, Darnold is set to CRUSH this projection with another high-efficiency performance.

#3

👇 J. Addison: O 39.5 rec yards

Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Jordan Addison has emerged as a key playmaker for Minnesota, and this projection feels far too low for a receiver with his usage and talent. Addison leads the team with 3.24 yards per route run against Cover 3, a defensive scheme the Bears play at the 3RD-HIGHEST rate in the league. Chicago’s pass defense has been consistently vulnerable, giving up the 8TH-MOST adjusted yards per target to wide receivers (8.61) this season. BUT Addison isn’t just capitalizing on soft defenses—he’s been productive even in tough matchups, clearing this number in three of his last four games.

In their Week 12 matchup, Addison dominated Chicago with 162 yards and a touchdown, and the Bears’ tendency to roll bracket coverage toward Justin Jefferson only opens more opportunities for him. SO with Minnesota passing on 63.7% of neutral plays—the 4TH-HIGHEST rate in the league—and Addison maintaining a 20%+ target share over his last four games, this number feels like a layup. Expect Addison to CRUSH this projection with ease.

#2

👇 A. Jones: O 74.5 rush + rec yards

Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Aaron Jones is positioned for another standout performance against a Chicago defense he torched for 129 total yards and a touchdown in Week 12. The Bears rank 3RD-WORST in yards per touch allowed to RBs (0.91) and have given up an average of 147+ total yards per game to opposing backfields over their last four contests. BUT what makes Jones especially appealing is his versatility—he’s improved his role in the passing game, with a 49% route participation rate that enhances his ability to rack up yards through the air.

Minnesota’s status as 7-point favorites creates an ideal game script for Jones to thrive as both a rusher and receiver. Chicago’s struggles against the run are glaring, allowing 4.95 yards per carry (29TH) and a 31ST-RANKED 17.6 rushing points per game to backfields. SO with Jones in a lead-back role and facing one of the softest run defenses in the league, this projection feels like a lock. Expect Jones to CRUSH this number.

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