Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.

Week 14 may be the easiest slate of the year 👇 👇

• 2x Bankroll Builder: Low-risk plays designed for steady, consistent growth—ideal for building a solid betting foundation.

• 3x Triple Up: Moderately aggressive plays that balance higher returns with reasonable risk—perfect for stepping up your game.

• 10x Long-Shot: High-risk, high-reward plays built for thrill-seekers—small stakes, big potential. Always play responsibly.

We’re already off and running! 10 more plays for Week 14 posted

Sunday Night Football (LAC @ KC)

NOTE: You can adjust with alt lines to get these numbers if they are bumped.

#5

👇 P. Mahomes: O 15.5 rush yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Mahomes doesn’t run often, BUT when he does, he’s one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, averaging 7.96 ADJUSTED YARDS PER CARRY this season—his BEST mark in years. The Chargers have allowed the 7TH-MOST RUSHING POINTS TO QUARTERBACKS, struggling to contain mobility in the pocket. While Mahomes only recorded 12 rushing yards in their Week 4 matchup, the Chiefs ran the 5TH-MOST PLAYS PER GAME this season, ensuring ample opportunities for him to find lanes when the Chargers overcommit to coverage.

Kansas City is favored by 4 POINTS, signaling a potential late-game script where Mahomes may use his legs to protect the lead. Additionally, with the Chiefs’ offensive line facing pressure issues—allowing 10 sacks over the last two games—Mahomes may be forced to scramble more than usual, increasing his chances of hitting this number. SO, with elite efficiency and a favorable matchup, this projection FEELS TOO LOW for a quarterback who knows how to pick his spots on the ground.

#4

👇 D. Hopkins: O 29.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Hopkins hasn’t been flashy, BUT he’s been one of the most EFFICIENT wide receivers on the Chiefs, with a 71.7% ADJUSTED COMPLETION RATE and 9.6 YARDS PER TARGET—both MASSIVE upgrades from last year. The Chargers’ defense is highly vulnerable to wide receivers, allowing the 21ST-MOST YARDS PER TARGET, a 5.6% TOUCHDOWN RATE (25TH), and 13.5 YARDS PER CATCH (25TH).

Despite being on the field for only 66.7% OF DROPBACKS, Hopkins remains a focal point in Kansas City’s passing game, commanding a 23.7% TARGET SHARE, ranking WR19 in efficiency over the past five games. With Kansas City projected as the 2ND-MOST PASS-CENTRIC OFFENSE THIS WEEK and running the 5TH-MOST PLAYS PER GAME, Hopkins should see plenty of opportunities to CRUSH this modest projection. SO, even on limited snaps, Hopkins is set to outproduce this number against a Chargers defense that struggles to contain efficient receivers.

#3

👇 X. Worthy: O 9.5 longest rec

Best Line: (Underdog alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Worthy is Kansas City’s primary deep threat, and while his overall stats might not leap off the page, he excels in explosive plays. BUT the Chargers rank 24TH IN COMPLETION RATE ALLOWED ON DEEP TARGETS and have given up the 3RD-MOST COMPLETION YARDS ON PASSES OVER 20 YARDS this season, making them one of the worst teams in the league at defending big plays.

In their Week 4 matchup, Worthy capitalized on this weakness with a 54-YARD TOUCHDOWN, proving he can beat this number on a single play. Kansas City’s offense runs the 5TH-MOST PLAYS PER GAME and operates with the 2ND-HIGHEST PASS RATE IN THE LEAGUE, ensuring more opportunities for Worthy to break free on deep routes. SO, with a defense that struggles to contain explosive plays and an offense designed to attack them, this projection FEELS FREE for one of the Chiefs’ top vertical threats.

#2

👇 T. Kelce: O 4.5 rec

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Kelce remains one of the most reliable targets in football, commanding a 25.1% TARGET SHARE, the 3RD-HIGHEST AMONG TIGHT ENDS this season. The Chargers are the perfect matchup to exploit, allowing the 3RD-HIGHEST TARGET RATE TO TIGHT ENDS, making them one of the most vulnerable defenses to the position.

In their Week 4 matchup, Kelce dominated with 7 RECEPTIONS ON 9 TARGETS, showcasing his ability to consistently find openings against this defense. Kansas City’s offense is projected to be the 2ND-MOST PASS-CENTRIC THIS WEEK, ensuring Kelce will see plenty of opportunities to produce. Additionally, Kelce ranks in the 97TH PERCENTILE FOR CATCHES PER GAME among tight ends, making him one of the safest bets for volume and efficiency. SO, with a defense that struggles against tight ends and an offense designed to feed him, Kelce CRUSHES this projection with ease.

⬇️ Or just take today’s free money ⬇️

Underdog - up to $1,000 (link)

PrizePicks - Play $5 lineup, Win $50 instantly (link)

Sleeper - up to $1,500 (link)

Monday Night Football (CIN @DAL)

NOTE: You can adjust with alt lines to get these numbers if they are bumped.

#5

👇 C. Rush: O 209.5 pass yards

Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Bo Nix may not be known for his rushing ability, but this matchup is tailor-made for him to showcase his legs. The Browns lead the league in pressure rate (43%), and Nix scrambles on 12.6% of pressured dropbacks, ranking 8TH among QBs. Cleveland’s aggressive pass rush creates opportunities for mobile quarterbacks, and they’ve allowed the 5TH-WORST efficiency against QB runs (24.5 rushing yards per game). While Nix hasn’t needed to rely on his legs in recent games, the projected defensive pressure makes this an excellent spot for him to rack up yards on the ground. Cleveland’s linebackers are also prone to overcommitting, opening lanes for scrambles. With game script likely requiring mobility, this line is undervalued for a quarterback with proven rushing potential.

#4

👇 J. Burrow: 249.5 passing yards

Best Line: (Underdog - alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Bo Nix may not be known for his rushing ability, but this matchup is tailor-made for him to showcase his legs. The Browns lead the league in pressure rate (43%), and Nix scrambles on 12.6% of pressured dropbacks, ranking 8TH among QBs. Cleveland’s aggressive pass rush creates opportunities for mobile quarterbacks, and they’ve allowed the 5TH-WORST efficiency against QB runs (24.5 rushing yards per game). While Nix hasn’t needed to rely on his legs in recent games, the projected defensive pressure makes this an excellent spot for him to rack up yards on the ground. Cleveland’s linebackers are also prone to overcommitting, opening lanes for scrambles. With game script likely requiring mobility, this line is undervalued for a quarterback with proven rushing potential.

👇 T. Higgins: O 59.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog - alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Courtland Sutton thrives on big plays, and Cleveland’s defense, while stout in some areas, is extremely vulnerable to explosive passes. The Browns allow the MOST yards per reception to WRs (15.9 YPC) and have struggled to contain physical receivers like Sutton. Projected for 8.5 targets this week—TOP-10 among WRs—Sutton’s ability to separate against man coverage (earning targets on 27% of routes vs. man) sets him up for success. The Broncos’ offense is expected to attack downfield, and Sutton’s knack for winning contested catches ensures he’ll capitalize on any deep opportunities. Against a defense ranked 28TH in adjusted yards per target to WRs, Sutton clearing this line feels like a lock..

#2

👇 J. Chase: O 59.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog - alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Jerry Jeudy has quietly been one of the most productive receivers in recent weeks, averaging 95 receiving yards over his last four games. With a 23.5% target share from Jameis Winston, he’s established himself as a go-to option in the passing game. Jeudy’s slot usage (35% of snaps) allows him to avoid Cleveland’s top corner, Patrick Surtain, creating mismatches in the middle of the field. The Browns’ defense allows the 6TH-MOST pass attempts per game (37.2), providing additional opportunities for Jeudy to rack up yardage. This low line doesn’t reflect his current role or recent production, making it a value pick.

⬇️ Or just take today’s free money ⬇️

Underdog - up to $1,000 (link)

PrizePicks - Play $5 lineup, Win $50 instantly (link)

Sleeper - up to $1,500 (link)

Today’s 0.5 yard specials & bonus cash

Leveraging promotions and specials across sportsbooks is the #1 key to success in prop betting and pick'em.

By partnering with multiple apps, YOU’LL get access to the best lines and daily offers, enhancing your strategy and maximizing

your chances at winning long term. Sign up and start with a guaranteed win (0.5 yard special) today…

👇 Try out Underdog (link)

Use code: NFLARMY

Get your 1st deposit matched up to $1,000

👇 Try out PrizePicks (link)

Use code: NFLARMY

Win $50 instantly when you play your first $5 lineup

👇 Try out Sleeper (link)

Use code: NFLARMY

Get your 1st deposit matched up to $1,500