Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

It’s time to catch up on the Week 13 Prime Time Games

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We’re already off and running! 10 more plays for Week 13 posted

Sunday Night Football (49ers @ Bills)

NOTE: You can adjust with alt lines to get these numbers if they are bumped.

#4

👇 C. McCaffrey: O 19.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Christian McCaffrey is the ultimate dual-threat weapon, and this matchup sets him up to exploit Buffalo’s glaring weakness against receiving backs. The Bills allow the 2ND-MOST adjusted receiving yards per game to RBs (47.0) and consistently rank among the worst in receptions and targets allowed to the position. McCaffrey, averaging 44 receiving yards per game since his return, is a prime candidate to take advantage of these defensive lapses. But it’s not just the raw numbers—CMC’s elite pass-catching ability is amplified by his role in the 49ers’ offense, running a route on an incredible 79.2% of dropbacks. Buffalo’s linebackers struggle in coverage, as evidenced by their poor efficiency against RB screens and dump-offs, which McCaffrey specializes in. With Brock Purdy’s tendency to lean on quick, high-percentage throws under pressure, expect McCaffrey to feast in the receiving game. This line is simply too low for a player of his caliber facing a defense this exploitable.

#3

👇 D. Samuel: O 29.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Deebo Samuel is a YAC monster, averaging 8.29 yards after the catch (YAC)—an elite mark that ranks in the 100TH PERCENTILE among WRs. The Bills’ secondary, already depleted by injuries, is giving up the 3RD-HIGHEST adjusted completion percentage (71.3%) to WRs and struggles mightily against players who can create yards after contact. Samuel’s versatility makes him a nightmare for defenses, as he operates in the slot on 31% of his snaps, precisely where Buffalo allows an alarming 9.5 yards per target (28TH). But what sets Samuel apart is his ability to turn short throws into chunk gains, a critical factor against a defense that’s allowed the 3RD-MOST completions of 20+ yards. With Kyle Shanahan scheming touches to his playmakers, Samuel is in a perfect spot to clear this low line with ease.

#2

👇 K. Shakir: O 49.5 rec yards

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Khalil Shakir has quietly become a consistent weapon in Buffalo’s passing attack, recording six or more receptions in each of his last five games. Facing a 49ers defense that allows the 3RD-MOST yards per target to slot WRs (9.6 YPT), Shakir’s role in the slot gives him a significant edge. He’s projected for 7.7 targets this week, ensuring ample opportunities to exploit this favorable matchup. What’s more, San Francisco’s pass rush creates quick decision-making scenarios for opposing quarterbacks, playing right into Shakir’s strength as a reliable short-to-intermediate target. With Josh Allen likely to face pressure, expect Shakir to see high volume in a game script that favors the passing game. His consistency and the matchup dynamics make this a line that’s hard to argue against.

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Monday Night Football (Browns @ Broncos)

NOTE: You can adjust with alt lines to get these numbers if they are bumped.

#4

👇 B. Nix: O 19.5 rush yards

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Bo Nix may not be known for his rushing ability, but this matchup is tailor-made for him to showcase his legs. The Browns lead the league in pressure rate (43%), and Nix scrambles on 12.6% of pressured dropbacks, ranking 8TH among QBs. Cleveland’s aggressive pass rush creates opportunities for mobile quarterbacks, and they’ve allowed the 5TH-WORST efficiency against QB runs (24.5 rushing yards per game). While Nix hasn’t needed to rely on his legs in recent games, the projected defensive pressure makes this an excellent spot for him to rack up yards on the ground. Cleveland’s linebackers are also prone to overcommitting, opening lanes for scrambles. With game script likely requiring mobility, this line is undervalued for a quarterback with proven rushing potential.

👇 C. Sutton: O 19.5 longest rec

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Courtland Sutton thrives on big plays, and Cleveland’s defense, while stout in some areas, is extremely vulnerable to explosive passes. The Browns allow the MOST yards per reception to WRs (15.9 YPC) and have struggled to contain physical receivers like Sutton. Projected for 8.5 targets this week—TOP-10 among WRs—Sutton’s ability to separate against man coverage (earning targets on 27% of routes vs. man) sets him up for success. The Broncos’ offense is expected to attack downfield, and Sutton’s knack for winning contested catches ensures he’ll capitalize on any deep opportunities. Against a defense ranked 28TH in adjusted yards per target to WRs, Sutton clearing this line feels like a lock..

#2

👇 J. Jeudy: O 39.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Jerry Jeudy has quietly been one of the most productive receivers in recent weeks, averaging 95 receiving yards over his last four games. With a 23.5% target share from Jameis Winston, he’s established himself as a go-to option in the passing game. Jeudy’s slot usage (35% of snaps) allows him to avoid Cleveland’s top corner, Patrick Surtain, creating mismatches in the middle of the field. The Browns’ defense allows the 6TH-MOST pass attempts per game (37.2), providing additional opportunities for Jeudy to rack up yardage. This low line doesn’t reflect his current role or recent production, making it a value pick.

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