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Let’s keep it going in Week 4 👇 👇

Another newsletter I think you’ll love…

Sunday Night Football (Bills @ Ravens)

#6

👇 T. Bass: O 2.5 XP made

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Buffalo has been lighting up the scoreboard, and Bass already has 14 extra point attempts through three games. But, Baltimore ranks 5th-best in red-zone stops. So, why the higher? The Bills score fast, ranking 1st in first-half touchdowns, giving Bass plenty of opportunities to hit over 2.5 extra points.

#5

👇 J. Allen: O 20.5 fantasy points

Best Line: (Sleeper) (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Josh Allen has dominated this season, leading the Bills to 30+ points in every game and topping fantasy scoring in two of three weeks. But, you might think Baltimore’s defense could slow him down—they’ve allowed the 3rd-fewest passing yards in the last 15 games. So, why take the higher? Baltimore struggles to get pressure (29th in pressure rate), and Allen destroys teams when not pressured, leading the NFL with a 136.6 passer rating. This is a prime spot for him to crush 20.5 fantasy points.

#4

👇 K. Shakir: O 3.5 rec

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Khalil Shakir has become Allen’s key target, with a team-leading 23% target share and 2.75 yards per route run. But, Baltimore has held wide receivers to the 5th-lowest completion rate in the last 10 games. So, why the higher? Shakir plays 75% of his snaps in the slot, and Baltimore has allowed the 3rd-most receptions to slot receivers. With Buffalo airing it out, Shakir is set to surpass 3.5 receptions.

#3

👇 D. Kincaid: 0 8.5 fantasy points

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Dalton Kincaid has been a reliable option, already finding the end zone and getting 26.1% of first-half targets in recent games. But, Baltimore’s defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to tight ends in the last 12 games. So, why take the higher? Tight ends have shredded the Ravens lately, with 23 receptions allowed (2nd-most), and Kincaid has multiple ways to hit 8.5 fantasy points even without a touchdown.

#2

👇 L. Jackson: U 207.5 pass yards

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Lamar Jackson has been efficient, but here’s the catch: Buffalo’s defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest passing yards in the last 10 games. Jackson has never topped 162 passing yards in three games against Buffalo, and they limit pass attempts. So, expect a run-heavy script, and 207.5 passing yards looks way too high.

MNF double-header (TEN/MIA)(SEA/DET)

#7

👇 J. Smith-Njigba: O 4.5 rec

Best multiplier: (Underdog) (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Smith-Njigba runs 76.8% of his routes from the slot, and Detroit has been torched there, allowing a league-high 27 receptions to slot receivers in the last three games. But while Detroit has held outside receivers in check, slot players like Cooper Kupp (14-123-1) and Chris Godwin (6-116-1) have had huge days. So, with Seattle passing at the highest rate this week and Detroit unable to stop slot WRs, JSN is set to see heavy volume, making him a lock to surpass 4.5 catches.

#6

👇 D. Montgomery: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

Best multiplier: (Underdog) (PrizePicks) (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Montgomery has scored in three straight games, thriving in the red zone as Detroit’s clear goal-line back. But Seattle’s defense ranks 5th in points allowed per touch to RBs, suggesting they’re tough against scoring backs. So, with Detroit expected to run the most plays of any team this week and the Lions' game plan built around reducing pressure on Goff, Montgomery’s red-zone usage should continue, making him a strong bet to score again.

#5

👇 J. Sanders: O 1.5 XP made

Best multiplier: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Miami, favored by 6.5 points, will have multiple scoring opportunities, even with a backup QB. So, with Miami projected to score nearly 20 points, Sanders should easily hit the mark of 1.5 extra points in a game where field position and short red-zone drives favor his opportunities. Sanders is knocking down multiple extra points. You rarely see 1.5 available for a kicker at home—it’s easy money.

#4

👇 G. Smith: 242.5 pass yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Geno Smith excels against man coverage, completing 72.7% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt and 2 TDs in such matchups. Detroit runs man coverage 42.7% of the time, the 3rd-highest rate in the league, which plays right into Geno's strengths. So, with Seattle projected to pass on 64.6% of their plays, the most of any team, the combination of favorable matchups and high volume puts Geno in a prime spot to clear 242.5 passing yards.

#3

👇 DK Metcalf: O 61.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Metcalf has historically shredded man coverage, averaging 2.55 yards per route run against it, significantly more than his production against zone. But Detroit’s defense has allowed the 10th-fewest yards per target to WRs, which could limit overall opportunities. So, given that Seattle is expected to pass more than any other team this week, and with Metcalf leading the team in man coverage targets (27.8%), he’s set up to crush 61.5 receiving yards, especially on deep shots.

#2

👇 D. Achane: O 23.5 rec yards

Best multiplier: (Underdog) (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Achane leads all RBs with 17 catches for 173 yards, cementing him as Miami’s go-to receiver out of the backfield. But Tennessee ranks 30th in receiving points allowed to running backs, giving up the most receiving TDs to the position. So, even though the Titans have allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to backs, Achane’s role in Miami’s pass game and his ability to exploit defenses in space make him a top candidate to surpass 23.5 yards with ease.