Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.

After a 9-1 start to TNF we came back to earth in Week 3… but the good news is we have 3 more prime time games to attack still! Let’s get it.

The island games in Week 3 🔥🔥🔥

Another newsletter I think you’ll love…

Sunday Night Football (Chiefs @ Falcons)

#6

👇 P. Mahomes: O 259.5 pass yards

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Mahomes is primed to torch the Falcons’ defense, with the Chiefs passing on 64% of their plays, the most pass-heavy team this week. The game is expected to feature the 3rd-most plays run, which means more opportunities for Mahomes to work his magic. But here’s something even more crucial: this game is being played in a dome, meaning perfect conditions for passing with zero wind. Mahomes is projected to attempt nearly 40 passes, ranking him at the top for volume among all QBs this week. So, with his elite efficiency in domes and the expected pace of play, Mahomes will comfortably clear higher than 265.5 passing yards.

#5

👇 K. Cousins: O 220.5 pass yards

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Cousins is set to easily surpass 230.5 passing yards this week, and here’s why: the Falcons are projected to pass on 60.2% of their plays, creating a high-volume, back-and-forth game. But the Chiefs' defense has been outstanding against the run, allowing the 10th-fewest yards per carry over their last 12 games, which means Atlanta will have to rely more on Cousins through the air. Plus, as 3-point underdogs, the Falcons will need to throw to keep pace. So, with the fast-paced game script, the Chiefs’ run defense forcing more passes, and Cousins already averaging 37 attempts per game, he’s a lock to go higher than 230.5 passing yards.

#4

👇 B. Robinson: U 73.5 rush yards

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Robinson has been stellar, but this rushing line is way too high for Week 3. The Chiefs have been stingy against the run, allowing the 10th-fewest yards per carry over their last 12 games. But here’s what most people don’t realize: Atlanta is expected to pass on 60.2% of their plays, one of the 8th-lowest run rates this week. That’s a significant drop from Robinson’s usual workload, and with the Chiefs’ run defense holding RBs in check, his opportunities to break big runs will be limited. So, with fewer carries in a pass-heavy game script, Robinson is very likely to go lower than 72.5 rushing yards.

#3

👇 R. Rice: O 74.5 rec yards

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Rashee Rice is set for another breakout game, with Mahomes likely feeding him 10+ targets again. The Chiefs are the most pass-heavy team this week, and Rice has been dominating with 12 yards per target so far. But here’s the key: Rice has excelled against Cover-3 defenses, averaging 4.08 yards per route run, ranking him in the 97th percentile. With Atlanta running Cover-3 at the 4th-highest rate in the league, Rice is in the perfect spot to exploit this matchup. So, with a projected 9.7 targets and the game being played in a dome, Rice will go higher than 74.5 receiving yards.

#2

👇 S. Perine: O 16.5 rec yards

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Perine is in a prime spot to hit higher than 18.5 receiving yards, with the Chiefs passing on 64% of plays and Perine playing a key role in passing downs. He’s projected to land in the 92nd percentile for RB targets, making him a significant piece of the passing attack. But here’s the real clincher: Perine excels in yards-after-catch, ranking in the 81st percentile, and with Kansas City likely running a high-volume passing attack, his opportunities will increase. So, with Perine likely seeing multiple dump-offs and utilizing his YAC ability, he’ll clear 18.5 receiving yards without much effort.

MNF double-header (BUF/JAX)(CIN/WAS)

#5

👇 T. Lawrence: O 0.5 INTs

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Trevor Lawrence has been shaky this season, completing just 51% of his passes, and that trend is likely to continue against a Buffalo defense that ranks as the 5th-best at forcing interceptions over the past 15 games. Lawrence faces a tough task against a Bills secondary that thrives in high-pressure situations. But Jacksonville’s offense is built to throw, ranking as the 9th-most pass-heavy team this week, which means Lawrence will still air it out often. So, while playing from behind, Lawrence will be forced into risky throws, making an interception almost inevitable in this game.

#4

👇 G. Davis: O 36.5 rec yards

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Gabe Davis is heading into a revenge game against his old team, the Bills, and he’s ready to make a statement. With Davis leading the Jaguars in routes and targets through the first two games, his deep-threat ability positions him for big plays downfield. But Buffalo’s defense has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers over their last 10 games, which could make people doubt his potential here. So, while the Bills are great at limiting yards-after-catch, they’ve been vulnerable to deep passes—right in Davis’ wheelhouse. Expect him to surpass 36.5 yards as Jacksonville looks to air it out in this #RevengeGame.

#3

👇 J. Chase: O 17.0 fantasy points

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Ja’Marr Chase is primed to explode this week, and 17.0 fantasy points are well within reach. Washington has been a pass funnel, giving up the most adjusted yards per target to wide receivers over the last 15 games. Chase is projected for over 9 targets in this matchup, which means volume won’t be an issue. But with the Bengals favored by 7 points, some might expect them to lean on the run late in the game. So, with Cincinnati's pass-heavy approach early on and Chase’s ability to make big plays, he’ll likely be the key contributor in putting them ahead, pushing him over the 17-point mark before game script even shifts.

#2

👇 J. Burrow: O 1.5 pass TDs

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Joe Burrow is in a prime spot to surpass 1.5 touchdowns this week against a Washington defense that has allowed the most passing touchdowns per game across the last 20 matchups. Burrow’s offense is projected to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team this week, passing on nearly 63% of plays, which sets the stage for a high-volume passing game. But the Bengals have the 8th-slowest pace in football, and some might think this will limit opportunities. So, even in a slower-paced game, the Commanders' porous defense, which gives up the 3rd-most yards per attempt, makes this an ideal spot for Burrow to hit at least 2 passing touchdowns.