It’s Lamar vs. Josh Allen under the lights, but I’m targeting the first-half numbers the market missed. Here’s where the edge is… in two minutes or less.

Josh Allen was one of the most explosive quarterbacks in the first half last season, averaging 124 passing yards before halftime, a number that already clears this projection by nearly 25 yards. He set the tone early in almost every game, and this matchup sets him up to do it again.

The Ravens’ defense was a pass funnel in 2024, allowing the 2nd most pass attempts per game to quarterbacks at 37.4, forcing teams to attack them through the air. But volume wasn’t the only problem, they also surrendered 238 adjusted passing yards per game, the worst mark in the entire NFL, which means they were giving up both efficiency and big plays. With Buffalo’s offensive line ranking in the top 10 for pocket protection, Allen will have the time he needs to attack early and often. So when you pair a QB who dominates first halves with a defense that was dead last against the pass, triple digits by halftime feels like one of the strongest picks on the slate.

Derrick Henry has built his career on overwhelming defenses early, and last season was no different. He averaged 43.5 first half rushing yards in 2024, already putting him above this projection before halftime even rolled around. But the matchup makes it undeniable, Henry averaged 142 yards per game against Buffalo last year across two meetings, completely breaking their defensive front.

That wasn’t a fluke either; Buffalo’s linebackers graded out as the 6th worst run defense unit in football, which left them vulnerable against workhorse backs like Henry. And the Ravens are projected to lean heavily on the ground game this week with a top 4 run rate on the slate, which only adds to the case. This isn’t just about raw usage, Henry ranks among the best pure runners in the NFL, turning carries into big plays at a rate that few can match. So when you combine elite efficiency with proven dominance over this exact opponent, 34.5 feels like a number he can crush before the half.

Joshua Palmer is one of the most overlooked receivers in Buffalo’s passing game, but the advanced metrics paint a different picture. He ranked in the 78th percentile in air yards last season, averaging more than 64 per game, showing he gets valuable, high upside targets whenever he’s on the field.

What makes him especially appealing here is the Ravens’ coverage profile. Baltimore allowed the 3rd most adjusted receiving yards to wideouts last season, and opposing quarterbacks attempted an average of 37 passes per game against them, the 2nd highest rate in football. That sets up the entire Buffalo passing attack for a big day, and Palmer benefits directly from that volume. On top of it, rookie Keon Coleman enters Week 1 banged up, which could open the door for Palmer to step into more routes and targets right away. He’s already built strong chemistry with Josh Allen, and even in a secondary role, he consistently finds ways to produce. So when you put a downfield threat in a high volume passing game against a defense that bleeds production to wide receivers, 12 yards by halftime feels almost automatic.

Rashod Bateman is an efficiency monster waiting to break out, and this matchup against Buffalo highlights exactly why. Last season he earned 25% of his team’s air yards and averaged an elite 10.8 yards per target, ranking him in the 96th percentile among all wideouts.

But what really makes this projection laughable is Buffalo’s defense. The Bills allowed the worst adjusted completion rate to wide receivers at 71% and had safeties that graded as the worst cover group in the entire NFL. That combination created massive opportunities for wideouts every single week. Bateman already proved he can take advantage, averaging 26 first half receiving yards in 2024, and in last year’s AFC Divisional round, he went off for 58 first half yards against Buffalo alone. This isn’t just about volume, it’s about a receiver with elite efficiency meeting a secondary that consistently collapses. So with both the advanced metrics and direct matchup history lining up, 15.5 yards by halftime feels like a pick he should smash without hesitation.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. The first half moves fast, and the edge is hitting those soft numbers before the game script flips.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe