TB @ LAR

Sunday Night Football is here. Buccaneers vs. Rams brings two explosive offenses under the lights, and I’ve found the numbers the market missed… in two minutes or less

#5 - Matthew Stafford: O 1.5 Pass TDs

Stafford’s production floor is as safe as it gets. Even in his worst passing game of the year with 130 yards and a 53.6% completion rate, he still threw 2 touchdowns. The Rams operate under center more than any team in the NFL at over 60% of snaps and use play action on 36% of their plays, the highest rate in football. That is exactly where Tampa’s defense collapses, with the Buccaneers ranking 31ST in yards per attempt and 7TH-HIGHEST in touchdown rate on play action throws over the last five games.

But this gets even better when Tampa brings heat. The Bucs blitz at the 4TH-HIGHEST rate, yet Stafford is 2ND in passer rating versus the blitz at 127.5 with 21 touchdowns and zero interceptions on those plays. If corner Jamel Dean misses again, Tampa’s coverage allows a league high 9.4% touchdown rate, 8.4 yards per attempt which is 31ST, and a 69.5% completion rate which is 28TH.

So between his top tier efficiency against pressure, Tampa’s vertical vulnerability, and their bottom tier metrics without Dean, this setup screams multiple scores. Stafford has averaged almost four passing touchdowns over his last four games, and the Bucs defensive splits make this one of the strongest multi touchdown spots on the slate.

#4 - Puka Nacua: O 6.5 Receptions

Nacua has caught 7 or more passes in 3 of his last 4 games and continues to post a target rate of around 36% per route. Even while losing some snaps in heavy personnel, his efficiency has stayed elite, with roughly 3.5 yards per route run over his last three games. When the Rams are in 11 personnel, which is their primary passing grouping, he is on the field for 95% of dropbacks.

But Tampa’s pass defense is exactly the type that funnels targets to a high volume receiver. The Buccaneers rank 9TH-MOST in receptions allowed to wide receivers and sit 31ST in yards per attempt allowed on play action. Nacua draws 27% of his targets on play action concepts and produces over 3 yards per route on those looks. If Jamel Dean is out again, Tampa loses its best press corner, and completion rates against this group rise even further, especially on quick hitting routes.

So the most likely counter to Tampa’s blitz rate and coverage structure is a heavy dose of Puka on slants, crossers, and in breaking routes. With a top ten reception matchup, elite per route involvement, and a quarterback who leans on him in key situations, Nacua projects to finish with more than 6.5 receptions and has a strong path to another 8 catch performance.

#3 - Davante Adams: O 39.5 Receiving Yards

Adams has seen 8 or more targets per game all season and still leads the entire NFL with 19 end zone targets, more than some entire offenses. Last week’s one catch line hides the real story, which is that his usage did not change. The Rams offense continues to feature him heavily, including in 13 personnel where he averages 2.56 yards per route, a strong efficiency mark in heavier formations.

But Tampa’s secondary is built to reset his box score. The Buccaneers allow the 8TH-MOST receiving yards to wide receivers, and when Jamel Dean is off the field they give up 9.3 yards per target and a 9.6% touchdown rate to outside receivers, both bottom five metrics. Adams aligns outside on 88% of his snaps, which means he lives in that exact coverage void. Tampa’s play action coverage also allows 17.2 yards per completion, which is 31ST, and that directly benefits Adams on deep outs, corners, and crossers off Stafford’s under center play action.

So with elite volume, a bottom tier outside coverage unit, and likely no healthy CB1 opposite him, this 39.5 yard projection looks soft. Adams should clear 40 yards comfortably, and in many scripts he can do it well before halftime.

#2 - Emeka Egbuka: O 49.5 Receiving Yards

Egbuka’s recent box scores do not match his usage. Over his last three games, he has recorded target shares of 37.5%, 30.2%, and 33.3%, which puts him in true WR1 territory. The dip in production has come from accuracy, with nearly 30% of his recent targets graded as inaccurate, dropping his catch rate from 65% early in the season to 43% in this stretch. The opportunity has not changed.

But the Rams defense is a clear get right spot. Los Angeles has allowed the 10TH-MOST receiving yards to wide receivers and ranks 24TH in yards per target allowed to outside receivers at 9.2 yards. Egbuka runs 75% of his routes on the outside, which means he is attacking the weakest part of this secondary on almost every snap. The Rams are 5TH-BEST in touchdown rate allowed to outside receivers, which means they are more likely to give up volume and yardage than quick scores, the exact game flow that benefits a receiving yards pick.

So with top tier target share, a bottom ten yardage defense against his alignment, and variance driven mostly by quarterback accuracy, this projection looks too low. Even with only average efficiency, Egbuka’s volume should be enough to push him more than 50 receiving yards in this matchup.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Buccaneers vs. Rams could swing on one or two big plays, so lock in these edges before kickoff

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. You can get a free $20 (no deposit necessary) on SLEEPER if you sign up using code HOLKA9