SEA @ WAS

The lights are on in Seattle. Seahawks vs. Commanders brings two underrated offenses and plenty of hidden edges… in two minutes or less

#5 - S. Darnold: O 29.5 Longest Completion

Sam Darnold leads the NFL in yards per completion (13.4) and yards per attempt (9.1), and this matchup lines up perfectly with his biggest strength: pushing the ball deep. Washington’s secondary has been a complete liability all season, allowing the most yards per completion (12.8) and most yards per attempt (8.4) of any defense in the league. But it’s not just volume, it’s how Seattle creates those explosive plays. Darnold ranks eighth in play-action rate (27%), and on those throws, he averages a ridiculous 20.9 yards per completion, while Washington allows the fourth-most yards per attempt (8.5) on play-action passes. That’s a massive schematic overlap that screams big-play potential.

Seattle also ranks seventh in pre-snap motion usage (59%), and when opposing quarterbacks use motion, Washington gives up the second-most yards per attempt (8.8) and second-most yards per completion (12.4). It’s a perfect storm: Darnold thrives on designed motion and deep play-action, while Washington can’t defend either concept. One shot to Smith-Njigba or Kupp, both elite in creating separation off motion, should cash this number easily. Add in the fact that Washington ranks 31st in passing points allowed per attempt (0.552) while Darnold ranks fifth (0.574), and this feels like one of the most lopsided efficiency matchups of the week. The Seahawks lead the NFL in passing plays gaining 10 or more yards (37.6%), and Darnold’s deep ball efficiency makes this 29.5 number feel laughably low.

#4 - J. Smith-Njigba: O 24.5 Longest Reception

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has turned into a cheat code in Seattle’s offense. He leads the NFL in receiving yards (819), target share (38.3%), and air-yard share (51.9%), commanding elite-level volume that consistently turns into explosive plays. But here’s the real story: he’s destroying teams off play-action. No receiver in the league has been more productive in that concept, with 332 yards on play-action (most in the NFL) while averaging an absurd 6.6 yards per route run on those snaps. And that directly attacks Washington’s biggest weakness: they allow the fourth-most yards per attempt (8.5) against play-action and have been shredded by crossers and deep corners all season.

Smith-Njigba has cleared 120 or more yards in three straight games, posting multiple receptions of 25 or more yards in every one. Washington’s defense just keeps making the same mistakes. They rank 28th in yards per target (9.0) allowed to receivers and 21st in touchdown rate (5.5%), constantly getting beat by WR1s in isolation. JSN also thrives when Seattle uses motion, ranking sixth in targets using pre-snap motion (40) and averaging 4.0 yards per route run when in motion, while Washington ranks bottom two defending it. With Darnold leading the league in deep-play efficiency and JSN dominating every coverage metric tied to Washington’s weaknesses, one play-action strike over the middle should blow past 24.5 yards before halftime.

#3 - J. McNichols: O 9.5 Receiving Yards

Jeremy McNichols has been the quiet engine of Washington’s passing attack, operating as their primary receiving back in every game since Austin Ekeler went down. Over the last three weeks, he’s earned 15.3 percent of Washington’s targets, ranking fourth among all running backs in target share, and that’s the exact way to attack Seattle’s defense. Seattle allows the most receptions per game (6.7) and the most receiving fantasy points to running backs, with running backs accounting for 26.1 percent of all receptions against them, the third-highest rate in the league.

But it’s not just volume, it’s necessity. Seattle’s run defense has been elite, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game to backfields and a league-low 3.0 yards per carry. That forces teams to abandon the run and use running backs in the passing game to move the ball. McNichols has taken advantage, recording five or more catches in three straight games and operating as the exclusive long-down-and-distance back. Meanwhile, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, the early-down rusher, has just seven receptions for 60 yards all season, meaning all passing work funnels through McNichols. In a matchup where Seattle’s pressure rate forces quick dump-offs, McNichols’ consistent role and Seattle’s glaring coverage hole combine for one of the safest plays on the board.

#2 - Z. Ertz: O 3.5 Receptions

Zach Ertz hasn’t lost his role in this offense, and the matchup couldn’t set up better for a bounce-back game. Seattle allows the fifth-most receptions per game to tight ends and ranks 29th in receptions allowed (6.7 per game) to the position. That’s not a fluke; this defense dares offenses to use the tight end, and Ertz has quietly maintained steady volume with six or more targets in four of his last six games. Seattle’s coverage breakdowns go deeper as they allow the third-most receptions and one of the highest catch rates to tight ends league-wide, which is exactly where Washington funnels production when their outside receivers struggle.

Ertz owns a 21 percent red zone target share, which climbs to 27 percent when Jayden Daniels is under center, meaning he’s a consistent part of the short-area game plan even when volume dips elsewhere. Seattle has also allowed a 9.6 percent touchdown rate to tight ends (fifth-highest), confirming this defense struggles to contain big-bodied pass catchers once drives extend. While McLaurin and Samuel command defensive attention on the perimeter, Ertz should operate freely underneath against one of the most generous tight end coverages in the league. Every metric aligns: high target stability, elite red-zone usage, and a defense that bleeds receptions to his position. This 3.5 number should clear comfortably on pure opportunity alone.

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That’s the list. Seahawks–Commanders might fly under the radar, but the edge is grabbing these numbers before kickoff

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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