PIT @ LAC

Sunday Night Football is here. Steelers vs. Chargers brings playoff-level energy and plenty of soft numbers to attack… in two minutes or less

#6 - A. Rodgers: O 20.5 Completions

Rodgers’ passing profile fits this matchup perfectly. He’s thrown at or behind the line on 32.5% of attempts, the second highest rate in the league, and only 23% of his throws travel 10 or more yards downfield, the lowest among all quarterbacks. That’s not a weakness, it’s how he’s built to play. The Chargers force that exact style, using two-high coverage on the sixth highest rate in the NFL to eliminate explosives and funnel short completions. They’ve allowed the second lowest deep-ball completion rate at 39.5%, and their defense ranks third best in yards per attempt allowed at 6.4 because teams consistently take what’s given underneath.

But that’s precisely where Rodgers thrives. He’s cleared this number in four straight games, averaging over 23 completions, and his deep-ball completion rate sits just 26th in the league, confirming that his short passing rhythm is the backbone of his efficiency. The Chargers’ two-high shell won’t take away what Rodgers already prefers, it will magnify it. So with both style and coverage aligned, another 22–25 completion performance feels inevitable, making more than 20.5 the most logical and efficient angle on the slate.

#5 - J. Warren: O 9.5 Receiving Yards

Warren’s workload remains one of the most consistent in football, logging 15 or more touches in every game this season. Even after a two-touchdown week where his route rate dipped to a season-low 38.5%, his overall involvement didn’t change. But the Chargers’ defense flips this script back in his favor. Running backs see the fourth highest share of receptions at 23.5% and average the tenth most receiving yards at 32 per game against them, as their coverage shell forces quarterbacks to check down early.

They’re also 29th against outside zone runs at 5.3 yards per carry and 24th in yards before contact at 1.47, which opens up space for screens and quick outs, exactly where Warren excels. Everything about this matchup points to high-percentage touches and efficient receiving production. So even one or two designed screens could be enough, but his role and the Chargers’ defensive funnel make more than 9.5 an easy projection to clear.

#4 - D.K. Metcalf: O 4.5 Targets

Metcalf’s production may look volatile, but his usage is the definition of matchup-dependent, and this one sets up perfectly. He leads the team with a 27.8% target share against zone coverage and 2.30 yards per route run, both elite numbers. But that’s exactly what the Chargers run most often, using Cover 3 or 4 on 64% of their defensive snaps. That alignment forces passes into Metcalf’s best areas of the field.

Opposing WR1s have averaged 7.3 catches and 88 yards per game against the Chargers, top ten in the league, with players like Samuel, Pittman, Waddle, and Jefferson all finding success. His year-long average of 5.9 targets already clears this number, and this game’s zone-heavy look amplifies that trend. So with volume expected to funnel his way again, more than 4.5 targets feels like one of the most stable projections on the board.

#3 - J. Herbert: O 31.5 Pass Attempts

Herbert already ranks among the league’s volume leaders, averaging 36.1 attempts per game, but everything about this matchup pushes that even higher. The Steelers allow the most pass attempts per game at over 40, as their front focuses on stopping the run early. Even when they adjusted to more two-high looks last week, using safeties deep on nearly half of their snaps, they still gave up 3.33 points per drive on series without turnovers.

The Chargers’ offense can’t afford to rely on the run without Joe Alt, as Herbert’s yards per attempt dropped 22% when he’s off the field. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in passing fantasy points allowed per game and 25th in points per drive without takeaways, giving up long, sustained possessions through the air. Add Herbert’s growing scramble rate at 33.9 rushing yards per game to extend drives, and this becomes an obvious volume spot. So the most likely outcome is another 35–40 attempt performance, easily surpassing more than 31.5.

#2 - L. McConkey: O 44.5 Receiving Yards

McConkey has quickly developed into Herbert’s most trusted target, earning 25% or higher target share in three straight and over 20% in five straight, while running a route on nearly 90% of dropbacks. Over his last four games, he’s averaged 77.8 yards per game, nearly double this projection. But the matchup couldn’t be better suited to his role. The Steelers allow the most receptions at 16.1 and the most receiving yards at 196.5 per game to wide receivers, including a 294-yard explosion by the Colts’ wideouts last week.

That defense funnels production to the middle of the field, right where McConkey operates most efficiently. His quick separation and intermediate volume make him a nightmare for zone-heavy teams like Pittsburgh, which has struggled to close passing windows between linebackers and safeties. So with elite usage and the top wide receiver matchup in football, more than 44.5 feels way too low for one of the most consistent young route-runners in the league.

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That’s the list. Steelers–Chargers could swing either way, lock in these edges before kickoff

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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