NE @ BAL

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#5 - R. Stevenson: U 8.5 Rush Att

Stevenson’s role has quietly collapsed, and the carry volume just isn’t there anymore.

• Logged just SIX rushing attempts last week
• Fell below 40% of backfield touches in TWO of his last THREE games
• Played more snaps than Henderson but handled only 36% of total backfield touches

This is now a role driven by pass protection, not rushing volume, making nine carries WAY-TOO-HIGH.

#4 - Z. Flowers: O 4.5 Rec

Flowers’ usage has turned into true alpha territory, and this matchup feeds that volume.

• Earned AT LEAST 30% of team targets in THREE of his last FOUR games
• Posted a massive 41.7% target share in his most recent outing
• Against man coverage, leads the team with a 31% target share and 2.47 yards per route run

With New England leaning heavy into man, five catches feels EASILY within reach. But my #1 pick is another Ravens pass catcher looking to step up in the receiving game.

#3 - D. Maye: U 1.5 Pass TDs

Maye’s floor remains intact, but the passing touchdown ceiling has completely flattened.

• Has just FOUR passing TDs over his last FOUR games, with ZERO last week
• Ravens have allowed a LEAGUE-LOW 1.9% passing TD rate over the last 9 games
• Patriots leaned on Maye’s legs near the goal line, where he scored TWO rushing TDs

With scoring equity shifting away from his arm against an elite TD-suppressing defense, this sets up as another FLOOR game.

#2 - T. Henderson: O 13.5 Long Rush

Henderson isn’t a volume back, he’s a ONE-PLAY problem, and this number keeps losing to that profile.

• Cleared 13.5 in BACK-TO-BACK games with longest runs of 27 and 65
• Has FOUR touchdown runs of 50+ yards this season, the MOST in the NFL
• Posted 161 total yards on just 16 touches last game, showing elite per-touch explosiveness

When a runner with league-leading breakaway speed only needs one crease, this projection is BUILT to get CRUSHED.

#1 - M. Andrews: O 31.5 Rec Yards

Andrews’ box score dipped, but the role and matchup still line up perfectly.

• Leads Baltimore with 28.3% of red-zone targets and 32.3% of end-zone targets
• Patriots allow the 9TH-MOST receiving yards to tight ends
• Tight ends account for 24.2% of fantasy production allowed by New England, the 4TH-HIGHEST rate

In a defense that consistently funnels production inside, this yardage number is WAY-TOO-LOW.

-Joe

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