MIN @ DAL

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Alright, let's get into it.

#6 - C. Lamb: O 8.5 Targets

Lamb has been a volume monster since Week 7, and Minnesota’s coverage tendencies funnel even more work directly to him.

• Vikings BLITZ AT THE HIGHEST RATE IN THE NFL, and Lamb owns 31.4% of first-read targets vs pressure
• He also draws 29.7% of first-read targets vs two-high, one of Minnesota’s core shells
• Before exiting last week, he posted 6 catches on 8 targets for 121 yards in barely a half

With WR3-level production since Week 7, this number is set to get crushed if he’s active.

#5 - J. Williams: O 17.5 Rush Att

Williams has become one of the most reliable workload backs in football, and this matchup amplifies his volume even more.

• Vikings face THE MOST RB RUNS IN THE NFL at 26.6 per game and THE MOST BACKFIELD TOUCHES at 29.9
• Williams averages 19 carries over his last four, consistently beating this projection
• Denver keeps him as their early-down engine, out-touching Mason when it matters

Minnesota inflates RB workloads every week, giving Williams one of the safest volume paths on the slate. The #1 Pick on this slate is different RB primed to exploit one of the weakest pass defenses in football.

#4 - J. Ferguson: O 5.5 Targets

Ferguson’s role has become one of the steadiest in the league, and Minnesota creates one of the clearest TE-volume funnels.

• Vikings allow the 2ND-HIGHEST SHARE OF RECEPTIONS TO TEs and the 3RD-HIGHEST TARGET RATE
• Ferguson has 5 or more catches in 3 straight and 4 of his last 5
• Minnesota’s low yards-per-target to TEs forces repeated short-area throws

This is one of his best volume setups of the season and 6 or more targets feels like the baseline.

#3 - J. Jefferson: O 49.5 Rec Yards

Jefferson is coming off two quiet weeks, but this is the single strongest WR1 rebound matchup on the slate.

• Cowboys allow the MOST RECEIVING YARDS PER TARGET and MOST FANTASY POINTS PER TARGET to WR1s
• They’ve given up WR1 spike weeks in three straight games (Brown 110, Rice 92 and 2 TDs, Williams 96)
• Dallas allows 9.6 yards per target and the HIGHEST WR TD RATE at 9.5%

If Jefferson is going to erupt again this year, this is the exact matchup and 49.5 is a gift.

#2 - J. Addison: O 39.5 Rec Yards

Addison has taken on a larger role, and Dallas consistently boosts WR2 production behind WR1 breakouts.

• Cowboys allow the MOST RECEIVING YARDS TO WRs in the NFL
• They’ve allowed multiple top-30 WR weeks in three straight, elevating secondary production
• Addison has out-targeted Jefferson in back-to-back games, including 62 yards last week

Dallas loses repeatedly in the intermediate windows, exactly where Addison wins.

#1 - A. Jones: O 17.5 Rec Yards

Jones still controls the passing-down role, and this matchup magnifies the one area where Dallas consistently loses.

• Cowboys allow the 2ND-MOST RECEIVING YARDS TO RBs and rank BOTTOM-THREE in receiving points allowed
• Jones ran 10 routes to Mason’s 4 last week, keeping full passing-down control
• He averages 4 or more targets per game over his last five

With Dallas tightening up against the run but bleeding production through the air, Jones is lined up to clear this number smoothly.

That’s the list. Sunday night in Dallas always delivers chaos. Lock in the value early

-Joe

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