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Matthew Stafford is playing his best football of the season, and the matchup removes nearly every defensive obstacle.

• Has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 12 straight games, and has thrown three or more in three of his last four games
• Chicago allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns this season, including four passing TDs to Jordan Love last week
• Stafford has produced in extreme cold before, throwing for 323 yards and three touchdowns in his last game played below 20 degrees and passing for 324 yards and two scores in a playoff snowstorm last season

When elite form meets a forgiving defense and weather isn’t a deterrent, three scores are firmly in play.

Puka Nacua’s role continues to grow, and this matchup keeps funneling volume his way.

• Has cleared this number in five of his last six games, averaging 12.8 targets over that span
• Has seen double-digit targets in six straight games while commanding at least 27% of team targets in nine consecutive games
• Chicago ranks 30th in points allowed to WR1 targets and allows an 8.8% touchdown rate to those receivers, ranking 30th

When an offense runs through one receiver and the defense can’t redirect volume, targets stack quickly. My #1 pick is a different Rams player who hasn’t missed this prop in 8 straight games.

Davante Adams returned to full usage immediately, and the matchup favors perimeter production.

• Has surpassed this number in four of his last five games
• Ran a route on 79.1% of dropbacks last week while accounting for 31% of team targets
• Chicago allows 10.2 yards per target to outside receivers, ranking 29th, where Adams plays 87% of his snaps

When elite volume meets weak perimeter coverage, yardage follows naturally.

Rome Odunze’s weekly volume is volatile, but the matchup creates a clear path to production.

• Has cleared this number in four of his last five games
• Played 72% of his snaps out wide last week, where the Rams are most vulnerable
• Los Angeles ranks 30th in points allowed to outside receivers and 28th in yards per target, while allowing a league-high seven touchdowns to the position over the past seven games

When perimeter coverage consistently breaks down, one or two catches can clear this number.

Kyren Williams’ rushing workload continues to shrink as the backfield split tightens.

• Has missed this number in three straight games
• Has cleared 16 touches just once in his last ten games, while Blake Corum has logged double-digit touches in five straight
• The Rams run the ball more often when Corum is on the field, cutting directly into Williams’ rushing volume

When usage compresses and roles overlap, rushing attempts stay capped.