KC @ NYG

The stage is set in prime time. Chiefs vs. Giants has sneaky value everywhere, and I’ve got the top pick ready… in two minutes or less.

#5 - T. Kelce: O 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs

Kelce’s role in this offense has clearly shifted back toward his prime usage. Last week he commanded a 20.7% target share after opening the year at just 10.5%, showing Kansas City is deliberately running more of the passing game through him again. Even with this offense sputtering, he’s still managed two straight TE1 weeks against two of the league’s best defenses at defending tight ends, proving the “he’s washed” narrative is overblown.

But the Giants have been a gift to tight ends through two weeks, allowing touchdowns in both games, first Zach Ertz in Week 1 and then 9 catches for 78 yards to Jake Ferguson in Week 2. They’ve been unable to keep tight ends out of the red zone, and the Chiefs are one of just three teams that have yet to run an offensive play with the lead, so the scoring urgency is there.

So this is exactly the matchup where Kelce finally breaks through for his first touchdown of the season. With Kansas City desperate to get right and the Giants struggling to defend his position, this feels like the week where the red-zone funnel tilts completely toward No. 87.

#4 - P. Mahomes: O 199.5 Pass Yards

Mahomes has started the year in a rare slump, posting 6.6 and 6.4 yards per attempt in the first two weeks and logging a career-high 27.6% inaccurate throw rate in Week 2. He’s completing just 58.8% of his passes when his expected rate is 68.4%, so positive regression is coming. He’s been forced to hold this offense afloat with his legs, his 15.5% scramble rate and 123 rushing yards lead all quarterbacks, but that is not sustainable over a full season.

But this is finally a defense that can’t get home. The Giants have a 31.6% pressure rate and play man coverage at the sixth-highest rate, which has led to opponents completing passes at a 69.5% clip and averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. This is one of the most favorable coverage and pressure profiles Mahomes has faced in months.

So with time to throw and a coverage shell that gives up efficient gains, this number is just too low. The Chiefs have no choice but to open things up through the air, and Mahomes should cruise past 200 yards as this offense finally finds rhythm in a get-right spot.

#3 - M. Nabers: O 5.5 Receptions

Nabers is functioning as the clear alpha in this passing game, owning a 37.5% and 32.5% target share through the first two weeks. He just dropped 167 yards and two touchdowns against Dallas, the second-highest output of his career, showing what his ceiling looks like when the volume lines up.

Kansas City’s defensive tendencies are exactly what feed Nabers’ profile. They play Cover 0 at the highest rate in the league, which means one-on-one opportunities and no safety help, and Nabers commands a target on over a third of his routes versus man coverage with elite efficiency. Add in the fact that New York is running top-12 play volume and you get one of the highest-projected opportunity totals on the slate.

So with elite usage, a perfect man-coverage matchup, and guaranteed passing volume, six receptions feels like the floor here. This is the type of leg you build an entire entry around.

#2 - W. Robinson: O 29.5 Receiving Yards

Robinson is coming off a breakout game where he set a career-high with 142 receiving yards, catching 8 of 10 targets. The key is how he got there: his average depth of target jumped from 3.1 to 16.2 air yards per target, showing he’s no longer just a short-area slot receiver but is now being used as a downfield weapon.

This is where the matchup tilts in his favor. Robinson plays 75% of his snaps from the slot, and Kansas City has allowed over 10 yards per target to slot receivers, one of the worst marks in the league. The Giants already rank fifth in pass rate, so we know the passing volume will be there.

Even if he doesn’t repeat last week’s explosion, Robinson doesn’t need much to clear this projection. With his new role and the softest coverage spot on the field, this is one of the most underpriced receiving totals on the slate.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Chiefs–Giants can flip fast, so lock in these edges before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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