HOU @ KC

Stroud vs. Mahomes sounds like a shootout, but the matchup trends tell a different story. Texans vs. Chiefs is much tougher than people realize… here are the plays that stand out in two minutes or less

#5 - P. Mahomes: U 25.5 Comp

Mahomes lit it up last week, but this spot is completely different. Houston’s pass rush is relentless and tailor-made to slow him down.

• Texans rank 2ND in PRESSURE RATE (42.8%) and 3RD without blitzing, forcing quick, low-depth throws; Mahomes completes just 44.3% of passes when pressured (23RD) with an 18.9% inaccurate-throw rate (31ST)
• Kansas City could be missing three starting offensive linemen, creating its worst protection mismatch of the season
• Houston has allowed ZERO QB1 finishes and the 3RD-FEWEST passing points per game all year

He’s averaged only 6.3 and 7.1 yards per attempt in two matchups vs Houston, and this defense is even better now.

#4 - X. Worthy: U 4.5 Rec

Worthy’s deep-ball potential takes a major hit here. Houston’s zone-heavy defense eliminates the boundary looks he thrives on.

• Has cleared this projection just once since Rashee Rice returned, commanding only a 17.4% target share
• Plays 71% of snaps OUT WIDE vs a Texans defense ranked TOP-5 vs perimeter receivers, allowing the 3RD-FEWEST yards per attempt (6.3)
• Kansas City enters with its LOWEST home implied total of the year, further capping volume

Houston’s coverage shell forces Mahomes to attack the middle, leaving Worthy’s vertical routes blanketed on the outside. The #1 pick for this slate faces a defense just as disciplined against top receiving options, and it’s not giving up much through the air either.

#3 - T. Kelce: U 59.5 Rec Yards

Kelce remains Mahomes’ safety valve, but usage and efficiency are both trending down.

• Below 20% target share in three of his last four games, with no 60-yard outings in that span
• Texans have allowed the 8TH-FEWEST yards per target (6.8) and only two tight ends over 50 yards this season
• Kansas City’s passing rhythm has dropped to 6.3 yards per attempt across the last three weeks

Houston’s disciplined coverage and relentless pressure make this projection tough to reach.

#2 - C.J. Stroud: U 259.5 Passing

Stroud’s accuracy and composure meet their toughest test of the year against an elite Chiefs secondary.

• Under this number in five of his last six starts, including both career games vs Kansas City
• Chiefs allow the 3RD-FEWEST yards per attempt (6.0) and the 2ND-FEWEST yards per completion (8.6) at home
• Houston carries one of the LOWEST team totals of the week, limiting pass volume

Kansas City hasn’t allowed a single top-8 QB finish at Arrowhead all season.

My #1 Pick for Texans vs Chiefs

This is the clearest edge in the game and the most likely number to move. It’s preloaded and ready.

👉Tap HERE to open the Gambly slip and lock it in

That’s the list. Texans vs. Chiefs is way tougher than it looks on the surface, so lock in these edges before kickoff

-Joe

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