GB @ PIT

Sunday Night Football is here. Aaron Rodgers faces his old team for the first time as a Steeler, and I’ve got the best edges for Packers vs. Steelers… in two minutes or less

#6 - J. Warren: U 79.5 Rush yards

Jaylen Warren is coming off his most efficient rushing performance of the year, but that momentum runs straight into the NFL’s toughest run defense. The Packers have allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs all season and the fewest RB rushing attempts, forcing opponents to abandon the ground game early. Green Bay’s front has been nearly impenetrable, ranking 4th best in yards before contact allowed (0.81 YBC) and surrendering just 3.6 yards per carry (4th best) overall.

That combination kills both efficiency and volume, and Warren’s previous matchups against similar top-4 run defenses ended with just 52, 47, and 37 yards on the ground. But this isn’t a one-off trend, it’s a defensive wall that neutralizes rushing lanes and funnels production into the air. So expecting Warren to hit another big rushing day in this spot feels overly optimistic, this projection sits right on the edge of his floor.

#5 - A. Rodgers: O 21.5 Completions

Aaron Rodgers draws the most favorable volume setup of the week. Green Bay has allowed the most QB completions per game (26.8) and the most QB attempts (39.7), meaning opposing passers are getting every opportunity to rack up short and intermediate volume. Rodgers enters with elite control of the offense, ranking 8th in completion rate (68.6%) and 11th in yards per attempt (7.4), a pairing that shows both efficiency and command.

He’s also pressured on only 5% of his dropbacks (10th lowest), giving him clean pockets to dissect coverages all game long. But what seals this play is the convergence of trends: Green Bay’s defense is allowing the 3rd most yards per drive over the last three weeks, while Rodgers has found rhythm with his short-passing weapons. This matchup sets up as a precision clinic where volume meets efficiency, Rodgers should cruise past this projection with ease.

#4 - J. Love: O 27.5 Attempts

This game sets up for volume, plain and simple. The Steelers have allowed the 2nd most QB attempts per game (39.5), and their defense has struggled to get off the field, giving up the 3rd most yards per drive in the league. Green Bay, on the other hand, leads the NFL in third-down conversion rate (49.3%) and ranks 1st in third-and-long conversions (48.3%), sustaining drives in ways few teams can.

But this is more than just efficiency, it’s structural. Pittsburgh’s 30th ranked defensive success rate and tendency to allow soft intermediate completions combine with Green Bay’s balance to produce long, pass-heavy possessions. Even in a game where tempo stays steady, Love should easily clear this number based on pure opportunity.

#3 - R. Doubs: O  29.5 Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh has given up the most receiving yards to WRs this season, and Doubs is perfectly positioned to capitalize. He leads the Packers’ receiving corps in route participation (84.4%) and target rate per route (21.4%), showing how central he’s become to Jordan Love’s progressions.

Over his last three games, his target share has ranged from 22% to 35%, with consistent intermediate usage that thrives against soft coverage. The Steelers’ 30th ranked defensive success rate keeps allowing chunk plays in the middle of the field, exactly where Doubs works best. This isn’t just a volume projection, it’s a clean matchup edge and opportunity spike.

#2 - T. Kraft: O 29.5 Receiving Yards

Tucker Kraft’s role is quietly expanding, and this matchup gives him one of the best efficiency spots of the week. The Steelers have allowed the 5th most TE receiving yards per game (67.2) and the 8th highest yards per target (8.1) to the position, struggling to contain tight ends over the middle.

Kraft’s profile fits that vulnerability, he’s averaging 9.0 yards after the catch per reception (best among TEs) and just saw 10 targets last week (season high). Pittsburgh just gave up touchdowns to three separate tight ends in one game, showing this coverage group is leaking everywhere. With volume and efficiency both trending up, this number feels too low.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. The Rodgers revenge game could swing fast, and the edge is hitting these numbers early

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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