GB @ DAL

Sunday Night Football is here. It’s a true battle of America’s teams, Packers vs. Cowboys, and I’ve found the numbers the market missed… in two minutes or less.

#6 - J. Ferguson: O 5.5 Receptions

Ferguson has turned into Dak Prescott’s go-to weapon, seeing 26 targets in his last two games, TOP 3 among all tight ends in that stretch, BUT his role grows even bigger now with CeeDee Lamb sidelined.

Green Bay has erased WRs, allowing the FEWEST yards per target in the league, while giving up the 4TH MOST catches to TEs. Add in Ferguson’s 27% target rate when Dak is pressured, against a defense that blitzes 5TH MOST, and the volume is undeniable. Six receptions doesn’t just feel attainable, it feels like the SAFEST play on the slate.

#5 - J. Love: O 1.5 Pass TDs

Love was bottled up by Cleveland’s relentless pass rush last week, BUT Dallas is not Cleveland. The Cowboys rank just 26TH in pressure rate, and when they fail to get home, opposing quarterbacks have absolutely DESTROYED them with a PERFECT passer rating, nearly 80% completions, and five touchdowns allowed already.

That collapse has fueled Dallas giving up the 2ND MOST passing TDs in the NFL and a top-8 fantasy QB in EVERY game. Meanwhile, Love completes 88% of throws at 10.4 yards per attempt when clean, and Green Bay carries a 27.25 implied total. SO asking him for two scores feels like the DEFINITION of an easy contest pick.

#4 - J. Jacobs: O 12.5 Receiving Yards

Jacobs has struggled for rushing efficiency this season, BUT his receiving role just spiked in a massive way. He drew NINE targets last week, catching five for 44 yards, marking his HIGHEST receiving usage of the year and proving Green Bay wants him involved through the air.

Dallas is the exact defense where that matters most. They’ve been stingy on the ground, ranking 8TH BEST in yards per carry allowed (3.5), BUT they’ve quietly given up the 8TH MOST receiving points per game to RBs. That funnel effect forces Jacobs into the check-down role, and with 20+ touches locked in plus a 27-point team total, 13 yards feels WAY too low.

#3 - T. Kraft: O 3.5 Receptions

Kraft toughed out a knee injury last week and still logged a heavy route share, BUT the real edge comes from this matchup. Dallas plays zone coverage at one of the HIGHEST rates in football, 3RD MOST Cover 2 and 5TH MOST Cover 3, and Kraft has been Green Bay’s most effective target in those exact looks, leading the team in targets per route run with elite efficiency.

That’s not random volume, that’s system-driven usage against the schemes he’ll see most on Sunday night. Dallas has also been a gift to tight ends, allowing an 82% catch rate, the 3RD WORST mark in the NFL. With Green Bay favored by a touchdown and carrying one of the week’s HIGHEST implied totals, Kraft steps in as Jordan Love’s zone-beater, making 4+ receptions the OBVIOUS play.

#2 - B. McManus: O 5.5 Kicking Points

McManus steps into one of the best scoring environments of the week with Green Bay projected for a TOP 3 Vegas team total at 27+. That means touchdowns plus field goal chances all night.

We’re already 8-0 on kicker picks this season, and the Packers’ red-zone offense hasn’t exactly been flawless, stalling out on 42% of trips. SO the volume is baked in for McManus to hit two or more kicks and tack on the extra points. This is about as AUTOMATIC as it gets.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. A true battle of America’s teams, and the edge is locking in these numbers before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. this week only… You can get $50 after playing just $5 on DraftKings Pick6 if you sign up using code HOLKA