DET @ PHI

Sunday Night Football is here. Lions vs. Eagles brings two of the toughest teams in the NFC, and I’ve found the numbers the market missed… in two minutes or less

#6 - J. Hurts: O 6.5 Rush Attempts

Jalen Hurts walks into one of the clearest rushing setups he has had all season because Detroit plays the 4TH MOST man coverage, and that is the exact look that forces quarterbacks to take off when defenders turn their backs. Hurts has always punished this coverage, and the Lions have amplified it by allowing the 4TH MOST QB RUSH ATTEMPTS, with every mobile quarterback on their schedule finding easy lanes, Mahomes, Lamar, Browning, Caleb Williams, J J McCarthy, and even Marcus Mariota all created production on the ground.

But we also just saw Philadelphia crank up Hurts’s play action usage to a SEASON HIGH 42.3 percent, a change that naturally increases scrambling opportunities as routes develop vertically and pockets extend. So when you combine Detroit’s man heavy structure with their track record of giving quarterbacks room to run, this projection becomes WAY BELOW the volume Hurts typically gets in this exact environment. Every matchup indicator points to his rushing attempts climbing, not shrinking.

#5 - A.J. Brown: O 99.5 Receiving Yards

A. J. Brown draws one of the most favorable coverage matchups he can see because Detroit runs the 4TH HIGHEST rate of man coverage, and that is where Brown becomes one of the most dominant receivers in the league. Against man, he earns a massive 36.1 percent TARGET RATE, nearly double his zone usage, and he produces an elite 3.98 YARDS PER ROUTE, turning every route into a high value opportunity.

But Detroit also allows the 5TH MOST YARDS PER RECEPTION, and that weakness directly aligns with Brown’s spike play profile, especially when paired with Hurts’ TOP 3 touchdown rate against the same coverage. So with Detroit forcing more one on one situations than almost anyone and Brown already showing blow up potential with 121 yards two games ago, this is the exact spot where volume, efficiency, and matchup all point in the same direction. Everything about this number is misaligned with the ceiling he carries when defenses try to play him straight up.

#4 - J. Gibbs: U 79.5 Rush Yards

Jahmyr Gibbs remains explosive, but last week revealed a major shift that matters for rushing projection, he played just 50 percent of snaps, his LOWEST RATE OF THE SEASON, confirming Detroit is back to a TRUE 50 50 split with David Montgomery. That immediately lowers his path to high rushing volume, and this matchup only tightens the squeeze because the Eagles allow TOP 5 YARDS PER CARRY to running backs when Jalen Carter is on the field, pairing that with TOP 5 yards before contact allowed, which makes breaking big runs extremely difficult.

But the most important trend is that Philadelphia has not allowed a single back to reach 100 rushing yards all season, shutting down every attempt at a spike game and forcing backs to beat them through efficiency they have not given up. So even though Gibbs has smashed weaker defenses recently, with two games over 135 yards in his last three, this environment is the complete opposite, split workload, elite front, and zero track record of allowing yardage explosions. All indicators point under.

#3 - S. Barkley: U 79.5 Rush Yards

Saquon Barkley continues to see big workloads, but the rushing efficiency simply has not been there, and this matchup magnifies every flaw. Detroit has allowed only ONE RB1 rushing performance all season, and the MOST any individual back has reached against them is 82 yards, making them one of the TOUGHEST MATCHUPS on the entire slate for pure rushing production. Barkley’s own metrics compound the problem, he sits near the bottom in yards after contact and consistently struggles to generate positives against strong fronts, the exact skill set required to beat a defense that rarely gives clean lines.

But Detroit also ranks TOP 10 in points allowed per RB touch, and running backs generate just 26.2 percent of total fantasy points against them, the 3RD LOWEST rate in the league. So in a spot designed to erase RB efficiency while forcing backs to win in ways Barkley has not been able to, this number becomes far too ambitious. The matchup does not leave room for the type of rushing day he would need to clear it.

#2 - J. Williams: O 4.5 Targets

Jameson Williams is finally being used like a real every down weapon, and the shift has been dramatic. Early in the year, 42.9 percent of his targets were deep shots, which crushed his consistency, but Detroit completely revamped his role, slashing his deep target rate down to 13.6 percent and cutting his air yards nearly in half, from 20.8 per target to 9.4. That shift unlocked his reliability, leading to 7 targets last week, the highest volume of his season, and helping fuel three touchdowns across his last four games as his involvement stabilizes.

But what matters most is that Detroit intentionally moved him to a healthy diet of high success routes, mirroring the exact usage pattern that sparked his 2024 breakout. So with his role no longer dependent on low percentage deep balls and now centered around high value, repeatable volume, this projection underestimates the passing involvement he has earned. Williams is delivering steady opportunity, not volatility, and his current usage supports a clear path to five or more looks.

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That’s the list. Two NFC contenders under the lights means opportunity everywhere. Hit these soft spots early

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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