DET @ KC

Sunday Night Football is here. Lions vs. Chiefs brings two high-powered offenses and plenty of soft numbers to attack… in two minutes or less.

#6 - X. Worthy: O 19.5 Longest Reception

Xavier Worthy has quickly become Kansas City’s vertical spark, commanding 22–23% of team targets in both games since returning from injury. But Detroit’s secondary is falling apart, missing multiple starters and ranking 23RD in yards per attempt allowed when not generating pressure, a recipe for explosive plays downfield. The Lions also sit 20TH in passing points allowed per game, and with Mahomes’ yards per attempt hitting season highs in back-to-back weeks since Worthy’s return, the chemistry is clearly building.

The Chiefs lead the NFL in neutral-script dropback rate (69.4%), guaranteeing consistent passing volume. So in a game projected to be one of the week’s highest scoring, Worthy’s elite speed meets a depleted coverage unit and one deep connection should easily CRUSH this number.

#5 - P. Mahomes: O 1.5 Pass TDs

Patrick Mahomes has been a TOP-7 scorer in 4 of his first 5 games, continuing to carry the Chiefs offense even while leading the team in rushing yards. But Detroit’s defense has struggled to contain efficient passers when they don’t create pressure, allowing the 22ND HIGHEST touchdown rate and 23RD MOST yards per attempt in those situations. Their cornerback room is banged up with both D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold sidelined, leaving major red zone vulnerabilities.

Kansas City, meanwhile, ranks 3RD in scoring rate per drive (51.1%) and continues to operate one of the league’s most aggressive passing attacks, with the HIGHEST neutral dropback rate in football. So with elite volume, a compromised secondary, and an offensive rhythm returning at the right time, Mahomes throwing for multiple touchdowns feels like the easiest call on the board.

#4 - J. Gibbs: O 54.5 Rushing Yards

Jahmyr Gibbs has finished as a TOP-15 RB every single week this season, offering both volume and efficiency as the centerpiece of Detroit’s offense. But Kansas City’s run defense has been a soft spot all year, ranking 27TH in yards per carry allowed (4.9) and 25TH in success rate versus RB runs, struggling to stop consistent chunk gains.

The Chiefs have also faced the 4TH FEWEST RB runs per game, which is about to change dramatically against a Lions team that ranks 1ST in RB carries per game (27.2) and 2ND in points per drive (2.89). Gibbs’ usage remains rock solid, averaging over 14 touches per game, and his explosiveness continues to shine in space. So with Detroit’s heavy run commitment and Kansas City’s inefficiency against the ground game, Gibbs is in prime position to SMASH this number early.

#3 - A. St. Brown: O 6.5 Receptions

Amon-Ra St. Brown owns one of the league’s most stable target profiles, commanding a 29% target share, 6TH HIGHEST among all WRs. But Kansas City’s defensive structure feeds directly into his strengths: they allow the 7TH HIGHEST slot reception rate, and St. Brown runs over 40% of his routes from the slot.

He also dominates in key pressure situations, leading Detroit in both play-action (28.3%) and blitz target share (34.5%), perfectly aligning with the Chiefs’ TOP-8 blitz rate (29.6%). The result has been four straight games with 7+ catches, even as defenses key in on him as the focal point. And with Detroit ranking 2ND in points per drive, passing volume should remain steady throughout. So with elite usage, matchup leverage, and game flow all in his favor, St. Brown feels like the safest volume lock on the board.

#2 - S. LaPorta: O 3.5 Receptions

Sam LaPorta just turned in his best game of the season (92 yards and a TD), and his role keeps growing as one of Jared Goff’s most trusted safety valves. But Kansas City has quietly been one of the EASIEST defenses for tight ends to exploit, allowing the 2ND HIGHEST catch rate (85.7%) and ranking 25TH in yards per target (7.8).

Their numbers look solid on paper only because they’ve faced weaker tight end groups from the Giants, Chargers, and Ravens, none with LaPorta’s downfield versatility. He’s also 2ND on the team in targets versus the blitz, and the Chiefs blitz at a TOP-8 rate, which should funnel consistent looks his way. So in a game with high passing volume and favorable coverage matchups, this projection feels WAY TOO LOW for a player who’s clearly emerging as one of Detroit’s most dependable weapons.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Lions–Chiefs could turn into a shootout. Lock in these edges before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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