CHI @ SF

#6 - C. Williams: O 1.5 Pass TDs

Williams’ late-season growth is showing up where it matters most, on the scoreboard.

• Thrown 2 or more passing touchdowns in 3 straight games, finishing as QB8 (21 points) last week
• 49ers rank 30th in pressure rate at 29.9 percent and 32nd in sack rate at 3.4 percent
• When unpressured, Williams jumps to 7.6 yards per attempt (13th), while San Francisco allows a 76.9 percent completion rate (30th) without pressure

With time to throw against a defense leaking clean-pocket scores, two passing touchdowns is the expectation.

#5 - B. Purdy: O 260.5 Pass Yards

Purdy is playing at peak efficiency right now, and this matchup keeps him operating from clean pockets with scoring drives baked in.

• Finished as QB4 (26.2) and QB2 (30.9) over his last two games, including 295 passing yards on 8.7 yards per attempt
• Chicago allows 8.2 yards per attempt on the road, the 3rd-most mark in the league
• Bears rank 28th in pressure rate at 31.7 percent, the 3rd-worst, while allowing a league-high 8.9 percent passing TD rate

With efficiency, protection, and scoring environment all aligned, this passing total clears without needing extreme volume. My #1 pick in this game is Purdy’s top WR who’s been one of the hottest end-zone targets in the NFL.

#4 - D. Swift: O 57.5 Rush Yards

Swift’s rushing floor is locked in, and this matchup directly attacks San Francisco’s biggest weakness.

• Cleared this number in 4 straight games, averaging 86 rushing yards per game in that span
• Runs outside zone on 52 percent of carries, the 3rd-highest rate among running backs
• 49ers allow 5.6 yards per carry on outside zone runs, the 3rd-worst mark, with a first down or touchdown on 29 percent, the highest rate in the NFL

When scheme and efficiency line up this cleanly, Swift stacks yards through steady gains alone.

#3 - K. Monangai: O 43.5 Rush Yards

Monangai doesn’t need full control of the backfield when efficiency does the work.

• Hit this in 4 of his last 5 games, including 93 rushing yards on 12 touches last week • Runs outside zone on 47.1 percent of attempts, the 5th-highest rate among running backs • San Francisco allows 5.6 yards per carry on outside zone and a first down or touchdown on 29 percent of attempts

Even in a split role, this matchup keeps his yardage climbing quickly.

#2 - C. McCaffrey: O 114.5 Rush + Rec Yards

McCaffrey’s role flexes with personnel, but the production never leaves.

• Posted 146 total yards and 2 touchdowns last game, with 117 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per carry
• With George Kittle on the field, McCaffrey owns a 44.4 percent rush success rate, ranking 10th among running backs
• Chicago allows 4.8 yards per carry to running backs, the 3rd-worst mark in the league

Whether the damage comes on the ground or through the air, this combined number is protected from every angle.

#1 - J. Jennings: O 0.5 Total TDs

Jennings has quietly become one of the most reliable scorers in football.

• Scored in 4 straight games with 7 touchdowns over his last 7, the second-most among wide receivers
• Holds a 21.7 percent target share, ranking 23rd at the position, with 1.74 yards per route
• Chicago allows a 9.4 percent touchdown rate to WR1 targets, the 3rd-worst mark in the NFL

When elite scoring trends meet a bottom-tier wide receiver touchdown defense, one trip to the end zone is the expectation.

That’s the list. Sunday night in San Francisco could get messy, so grab these edges before kickoff.

-Joe

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