BUF @ NE

The lights are on in the AFC East. Bills vs. Patriots is loaded with storylines, and I’ve locked in my best picks… in two minutes or less.

#6 - D. Maye: O 24.5 Rushing Yards

Drake Maye has been lights out to start the year, delivering three straight QB1 fantasy weeks and adding three rushing scores already. He isn’t afraid to tuck it and run, giving him a built-in rushing floor every time he steps on the field.

But this matchup specifically amplifies that strength. Buffalo generates the 2ND-HIGHEST PRESSURE RATE in the NFL at 45.5%, forcing QBs into scrambles rather than throws. They’ve also allowed the MOST RUSHING YARDS TO QBs this season, the clearest green light you can ask for. So with New England projected to chase points against a Buffalo offense that leads the league in points per drive, Maye clearing 25 rushing yards feels like the baseline expectation.

#5 - S. Diggs: O 45.5 Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs just broke out for his first 100-yard game as a Patriot, drawing seven targets despite the team throwing only 17 times in a blowout. That usage confirmed what we already knew, he’s the clear WR1 and Drake Maye’s first read in this offense.

But Buffalo has struggled all year to contain perimeter threats, allowing the 2ND-MOST 20+ YARD PASSES in the NFL and ranking bottom-five in touchdown rate allowed to outside receivers at 14.7%. On top of that, Diggs owns a TEAM-HIGH 26.5% TARGET SHARE on nearly 90% of routes. So in a revenge spot against his old team, with Buffalo prone to explosive plays on the outside, 45.5 yards looks like a floor outcome for the clear alpha in this passing game.

#4 - J. Palmer: O 16.5 Receiving Yards

Josh Palmer’s box scores look quiet, but the matchup metrics paint a very different picture. He owns the TEAM-HIGH 31% TARGET RATE PER ROUTE AGAINST MAN COVERAGE, and that’s exactly what the Patriots lean on, ranking 7TH-HIGHEST in man coverage rate this year.

But New England’s secondary has been springing leaks, allowing the 29TH-RANKED completion rate and the 28TH-RANKED yards per attempt, making it one of the softest pass defenses underneath. With Christian Gonzalez drawing Coleman outside, Palmer doesn’t need heavy volume, just 1–2 looks against the exact coverage that funnels him targets. So clearing 17 yards is one of the cleanest low-threshold picks on the board.

#3 - K. Shakir: U 5.5 Receptions

Khalil Shakir has flashed splash plays in back-to-back weeks, scoring touchdowns on creative screens and broken tackles, but his underlying volume tells the real story. He’s only been targeted on 18% of his routes overall, and that dips drastically to just 9.5% against man coverage.

But the Patriots play man at the 7TH-HIGHEST RATE in the league, a direct schematic issue for a receiver who thrives finding space against zone. Even last season against New England, he managed only 2 receptions on 6 targets. So while the recent touchdowns stand out, the man-heavy scheme and lack of dependable target share make less than 5.5 receptions the sharper side to play.

#2 - M. Prater: O 5.5 Kicking Points

The Bills’ offense has been a machine, averaging 3.09 points per drive (BEST in the NFL) and scoring touchdowns on a LEAGUE-HIGH 37% of their possessions. That guarantees a steady floor of extra points every week.

But this matchup also creates upside for field goals. New England has already surrendered the 2ND-MOST explosive pass plays of 20+ yards, meaning Buffalo will move the ball with ease but still stall occasionally in the red zone. With the Bills carrying a 28.5 implied team total as -7.5 favorites, Prater is locked into one of the best kicking scripts of Week 5. So higher than 5.5 points feels almost automatic.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Bills–Patriots brings AFC East chaos, lock in these edges before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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