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Henry is built for must-win football, and this spot sets up perfectly for another breakaway run.

• Cleared this longest-rush number in five straight games, showing weekly home-run ability
• Averaged 128 rushing yards per game vs Pittsburgh over his last two matchups, consistently creating chunk plays
• Coming off a 216-yard, four-touchdown performance, confirming peak explosiveness with full workload

When Henry is ripping off one defense-breaking run per game and everything is on the line, this number sits too low.

Rodgers thrives when control and volume matter most, and this matchup forces both.

• Ravens force the fourth-most pass attempts in football, inflating completion totals
• Rodgers has averaged 23.5 completions over his last four games, establishing a clear baseline
• Completed 23 passes vs Baltimore earlier this season, already above today’s number

When playoff stakes meet forced pass volume, this completion total clears through structure alone. My #1 pick is battling Rodgers head-to-head for the division title.

Gainwell’s role in the passing game has quietly become elite, and the matchup magnifies it.

• Owns a 21.1 percent target share over the last six weeks, ranking second among running backs
• Leads all running backs in yards per route over that same span
• Ravens allow the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs, directly attacking his strength

When top-tier usage and league-best efficiency collide with a known defensive weakness, this receiving number is mispriced.

Warren already showed the path in this exact matchup, and the defensive profile hasn’t changed.

• Logged 49 receiving yards vs Baltimore in their last meeting, clearing this easily
• Ravens rank 29th in receiving points allowed to running backs, which is fourth-worst
• Aaron Rodgers checks the ball down at one of the highest rates in football, feeding short-area backs

When prior success, defensive weakness, and quarterback tendencies align, this projection clears on routine volume.

Lamar’s recent passing ceiling stays capped, and this opponent reinforces that limit.

• Surpassed this number in just two of his last nine games, showing a consistent ceiling
• Steelers held opposing quarterbacks to 186 passing yards last week, continuing suppression
• Lamar averages 202 passing yards over his last four matchups vs Pittsburgh, staying below this mark

When trend and matchup both point the same direction, this passing projection sits too high.

That’s the list. Winner takes the division, loser goes home. This is as high stakes as football gets.

-Joe

P.S. These picks stay free because of partners like ProphetX. I only work with platforms I actually use and trust. Code HOLKA = 20% match up to $100.