BAL @ BUF

Football is officially back. It’s Lamar vs. Josh Allen on Sunday night, and I’ve got the edges the market missed… in two minutes or less.

#5 - J. Cook: U 14.5 Longest Rush

Cook flashed explosive ability last season with four touchdowns from 40+ yards, which makes him look like a home-run threat. But this week he runs into the RAVENS DEFENSE that ALLOWED THE FEWEST yards per carry to running backs in 2024 at just 3.5. They were also the stingiest in football at preventing conversions, giving up the FEWEST first downs or touchdowns per rush at 15.6%.

In two full games against Baltimore last season, Cook handled 26 carries and never broke a run longer than 14 yards, finishing with just 106 yards and zero scores. That wasn’t a fluke either. Baltimore finished as the 2ND-BEST defense in limiting explosive runs of 10+ yards over the final two months. So while Cook has the résumé of a breakaway back, this is the worst possible spot for him to deliver a splash play. The Ravens suffocate efficiency and erase chunk runs, which makes “less than” 14.5 for his longest rush the sharp side.

#4 - M. Andrews: O 3.5 Catches

Andrews opened 2024 slow, but once the season flipped to Week 5 he was back in elite form, 10TH among tight ends in catches, 6TH in yards, and 1ST in touchdowns the rest of the way. But the key edge this week is usage. With Isaiah Likely OUT after foot surgery, Andrews’ involvement shoots through the roof.

In the only game Likely missed last year, Andrews played a season-high 87% of snaps, ran routes on 94% of dropbacks, and turned that into 6 catches on 7 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown. Buffalo’s defense did hold tight ends to the 6TH-FEWEST yards per target in 2024, but even in the playoff matchup Andrews still caught 5 passes for 61 yards and nearly scored. He lined up in the slot or outside on over 75% of his snaps last season, functioning as more of a wideout than a traditional TE. So with no Likely to siphon routes, Andrews’ role projects to spike again, and clearing “more than” 3.5 receptions is well within reach.

#3 - J. Palmer: O 24.5 Rec Yards

Palmer has never been a box-score star, averaging just 39 yards per game over four years with the Chargers. But last season he quietly ranked 10TH among wideouts in route win rate and 8TH in separation score against man coverage, traits that matter more than his counting stats.

That’s because Buffalo saw MORE man coverage than any other team in the NFL last year, with defenses playing it on 35.5% of dropbacks. And Baltimore dialed it up even heavier against Josh Allen in the playoffs, playing man on nearly HALF his snaps, their 2ND-HIGHEST rate of the year. Palmer is built for exactly this matchup, with the ability to win quickly and create space where the Bills’ other wideouts struggle. Keon Coleman is a pure deep threat with separation concerns, and Khalil Shakir is limited mostly to slot usage, leaving Palmer as Allen’s most reliable man-beater on the outside. So even with modest volume, the coverage tendencies and skillset fit make “more than” 24.5 receiving yards a smart play.

#2 - T. Loop: O 5.5 Kicking Points

The game environment here is as good as it gets for a kicker. The RAVENS led the entire league in red-zone touchdown rate last year at 74.2%, and the BILLS ranked right behind them at 71.6%. That means constant trips deep into scoring territory, and every drive ends with points.

This matchup also carries the 2ND-HIGHEST implied team total of the entire Week 1 slate, which locks in volume for both offenses. Buffalo forced turnovers on a league-high 17.5% of opponent drives last season, which only creates more short fields and extra scoring opportunities. Combine that with Baltimore playing in games that went over the total 76% of the time, the HIGHEST RATE in the league, and you get an environment where Loop piles up either field goals or extra points all night. So whether it’s red-zone trips stalling or touchdowns capping drives, Loop has multiple clear paths to sail past “more than” 5.5 kicking points.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Ravens–Bills won’t disappoint, but the edge comes from hammering the soft numbers before the lights come on.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe