ATL @ SF

Prime time in the Bay. Falcons vs. 49ers has fireworks written all over it, and I’ve locked in the sharpest edges… in two minutes or less.

#5 - T. Allgeier: O 19.5 Rushing Yards

Atlanta ranks 5th in rush rate this season, leaning heavily on the ground game to control tempo and protect their rookie quarterback. Allgeier continues to play a meaningful role behind Bijan Robinson, logging double-digit touches in 4 of 5 games despite splitting the backfield. His situational usage is what makes this pick so sneaky. Allgeier actually leads the team in goal-line opportunities, out-touching Bijan 7 to 4 inside the 10 and 4 to 3 inside the five, showing how much trust Atlanta places in him when drives get tight.

But what really gives him an edge this week is the matchup. The 49ers rank 31st in rushing success rate over the last month, struggling to generate push without Fred Warner and failing to win early downs. So in a game where Atlanta’s offense will lean on volume and pace to neutralize the 49ers’ pass rush, Allgeier’s early-down work and short-yardage role make 20 yards feel way too low. This number doesn’t reflect his consistent involvement in one of the NFL’s most run-heavy systems.

#4 - B. Robinson: O 99.5 Rush + Rec Yards

Bijan is on a different level right now. He’s topped 100 total yards in every single game, putting up 238, 181, and 168 over his last three. He’s not just running; he’s producing at an elite all-purpose rate, ranking second among all running backs in receiving yards at 338, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. That dual-threat role makes him nearly game-script proof, and this matchup only makes things easier. The 49ers rank 21st in rushing yards allowed and 20th in receiving points allowed to running backs, showing cracks across both dimensions since losing Fred Warner.

But the deeper issue for San Francisco is their defensive line. Over the past four weeks, they’ve ranked 29th in pressure rate and bottom five in sack rate at 2.2 percent, unable to disrupt plays at the line of scrimmage. So with Atlanta running the ball at the 5th-highest rate in football, Bijan’s blend of explosiveness and pass-catching volume gives him a clear path to another monster outing. This projection feels light for a player who’s hit triple digits in 15 of his last 17 games.

#3 - D. London: O 59.5 Receiving Yards

Drake London just reaffirmed his alpha status with a 10-catch, 158-yard, one-touchdown performance on 16 targets, commanding half of Atlanta’s passing offense while Darnell Mooney was sidelined. When Mooney is off the field, London’s numbers jump off the page with 41.7 percent of team targets, 55.7 percent of air yards, and a ridiculous 2.92 yards per route run, all elite WR1 metrics. Those efficiency spikes aren’t a fluke; they reflect how much this offense funnels through him when Mooney sits.

But what makes this matchup especially juicy is where he wins. London lines up in the slot on 34 percent of snaps, and that’s where San Francisco is bleeding production. The 49ers have allowed the 3rd-highest share of wide receiver receptions from the slot and rank bottom five in both yards per target at 9.5 and touchdown rate at 8.3 percent to slot receivers. So even if the Falcons stick to their run-heavy approach, London’s short-to-intermediate dominance gives him the edge against a defense that can’t contain inside leverage routes. With his target share and alignment advantage, this number feels like a lock. Volume plus matchup equals another big day for Atlanta’s top receiver.

#2 - K. Pitts: O 24.5 Receiving Yards

Kyle Pitts hasn’t had the box-score pop this season, but his role remains elite. He’s been on the field for 91 percent of Atlanta’s dropbacks, the second-highest rate among tight ends, and holds a 17.4 percent target share, giving him consistent routes and usage in an offense built on play action. That kind of route volume alone makes him a constant threat to hit efficiency spikes when coverage breaks down.

But this week’s hidden edge is massive: the 49ers just lost Fred Warner, the engine of their coverage unit and the main reason they’ve been elite against tight ends for years. After Warner left the game last week, Tampa Bay’s tight ends went 5 of 6 for 51 yards, attacking that soft middle zone repeatedly. So even with Pitts sitting behind Bijan and London in target priority, the opportunity for chunk plays between the hashes opens wide against this depleted second level. Atlanta’s 5th-ranked rush rate will draw defenders into the box, leaving play-action windows tailor-made for Pitts to exploit. In this setup, 25 yards feels like the definition of a free number.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Falcons–49ers could turn into a shootout, lock in these edges before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. this week only… You can get $50 after playing just $5 on DraftKings Pick6 if you sign up using code HOLKA