ATL @ MIN

The NFC showdown is set — Falcons vs. Vikings under the lights. I’ve got the strongest play on the board… in two minutes or less.

#6 - J. Jefferson: O 7.5 Targets

Justin Jefferson’s target volume is as secure as it gets. Even in a game where Minnesota posted the 3RD-LOWEST dropback rate in the league, Jefferson still commanded a MASSIVE 35% TARGET SHARE, hauling in 7 looks from J.J. McCarthy. That’s the floor.

But now the Vikings are 4.5-point home favorites with a 24.5-POINT IMPLIED TOTAL, and ATL is a defense tailor-made for WR volume. They allowed the 4TH-MOST RECEPTIONS to wideouts last season and still surrendered chunk plays in Week 1 despite generating a top-10 pressure rate. The books hanging this at 7.5 is a bad number. Projections have Jefferson closer to 9 or 10 targets, making 8+ looks feel like the OBVIOUS side.

#5 - A. Jones: O 19.5 Receiving Yards

Aaron Jones is locked into a high-value role through the air. He ran routes on over HALF of his snaps in Week 1 and turned just 3 catches into 44 yards, including a 27-YARD TOUCHDOWN down the sideline. Minnesota used him as the change-of-pace weapon to balance Jordan Mason’s ground role, with Jones seeing a pass-heavy 61% snap rate in those situations.

But ATL is the exact defense to exploit. They allowed the MOST RB RECEPTIONS in the NFL last year and already gave up 5 catches and a score to Tampa backs in Week 1. So this projection feels like a gift. Jones only needs one or two of those designed screens or checkdowns to CRUSH this number, and the matchup guarantees those opportunities are coming.

#4 - B. Robinson: U 19.5 Rush Attempts

Bijan Robinson exploded in the passing game with 6 catches for 100 yards and a 50-YARD TOUCHDOWN, but his rushing workload told the real story. He saw just 54.6% of Atlanta’s carries, ranking 28TH among backs in Week 1, while Tyler Allgeier mixed in for short-yardage work inside the 10. Even when he did get the ball, Robinson was hit at or behind the line on 10 of his 12 carries, finishing with 0.00 YARDS BEFORE CONTACT. That’s a clear offensive line issue without Kaleb McGary and Drew Dalman.

This matchup is even worse for rushing volume. Minnesota faced the 5TH-FEWEST RB CARRIES last season and just held Chicago to 53 yards on 17 attempts in Week 1. With Atlanta entering as 4.5-point road underdogs and Robinson posting a 22% TARGET RATE on routes, the Falcons will lean on him as a receiver, not a 20-carry workhorse. That makes less than 19.5 rush attempts the SHARPEST angle.

#3 - J.J. McCarthy: O 199.5 Pass Yards

J.J. McCarthy showed both the rookie floor and the ceiling in his debut. Through the first half he managed just 48 yards and a pick-six, but in the fourth quarter he FLIPPED the game, going 8-for-11 for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns while adding a 14-YARD RUN. He finished as QB12 in fantasy scoring despite Minnesota running one of the 3RD-HIGHEST rush rates in the league, which only highlights how much room is left if volume increases.

Atlanta’s defense is still vulnerable. They posted the 9TH-HIGHEST pressure rate in Week 1 but gave up a 9.4% TOUCHDOWN RATE (3RD-WORST) and ranked bottom five in completion percentage allowed when unpressured, the same big-play issues that haunted them in 2024. With Minnesota’s 24.5-POINT IMPLIED TOTAL (6TH-HIGHEST of the week) and McCarthy already showing chemistry with Jefferson and Jones, this 199.5 number is simply TOO LOW. He only needs average volume to EASILY clear it.

#2 - W. Reichard: O 5.5 Kicking Points

Minnesota’s offense is projected for one of the most productive games on the slate, carrying a 24.5-POINT IMPLIED TOTAL that ranks 6TH-HIGHEST of the week. That sets Reichard up perfectly for scoring opportunities. He’s back as the full-time kicker after the team released John Parker Romo, locking in his role without competition.

The matchup helps him too. Atlanta showed bend-don’t-break tendencies in Week 1, forcing Tampa into 3 field goal attempts despite giving up steady yards. Reichard benefits either way: if Minnesota finishes drives, PATs pile up, and if Atlanta stiffens near the red zone, field goal tries push him over the top. So 5.5 points is simply TOO LOW in a game where Minnesota projects for multiple scoring possessions.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Falcons–Vikings could swing the NFC picture, and the edge is locking in these numbers before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe