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Josh Allen’s rushing output spikes in postseason environments, and Denver’s defensive style creates scramble opportunities.

• Averages 50 rushing yards per game in his playoff career
• Denver blitzes at the third-highest rate in the league, forcing quarterbacks out of structure
• Trey Lance rushed for 69 yards on nine carries against Denver in Week 18, highlighting the scramble upside

When pressure collapses the pocket, Allen’s rushing production follows naturally.

James Cook’s efficiency has swung week to week, but his season-long production and matchup history support a bounce-back rushing day.

• Averaged 95 rushing yards per game over the regular season
• Buffalo backs rushed for 167 yards on 33 carries against Denver last season, with Cook handling 23 carries for 120 yards and a touchdown
• Buffalo has a size advantage up front and consistently won at the point of attack in this matchup last season

When Buffalo commits to the run and controls the trenches, Cook’s rushing volume pushes this number within reach. My #1 pick is a Bronco in a nightmare matchup, but that’s where the edge is.

Khalil Shakir’s role is built on volume and short-area usage, giving him a stable reception floor even in a difficult matchup.

• Caught a career-high 12 passes last week, commanding a season-high 34.3 percent target share
• Logged six receptions for 61 yards when these teams played last season, showing this matchup still feeds his role
• Denver forces the fifth-most targets to wide receivers and allows 7.4 yards per target to slot receivers, ranking 12th, where Shakir plays 62 percent of his snaps

When usage is manufactured close to the line of scrimmage, volume carries this reception number.

Dawson Knox’s weekly ceiling is capped, but his role still supports clearing a low reception threshold in this matchup.

• Surpassed 2.5 receptions in six of his last eight games, showing consistent involvement
• Led the team in red-zone targets over the last five games, reinforcing his role in scoring areas
• Denver funnels production to tight ends, with 28.2 percent of receptions against them going to the position, the sixth-highest rate in the league

When wide receivers are contained and tight ends absorb the volume, three catches is the expected outcome.

R. J. Harvey’s rushing efficiency has been volatile, but his scoring role and receiving usage keep his touchdown path intact.

• Has scored in five of his last six games, totaling six touchdowns over that span
• Since the loss of J.K. Dobbins, Harvey has handled 64.5 percent of the backfield touches and 14 of the 18 touches inside the 10-yard line
• Buffalo has allowed the most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season and the third-most total RB touchdowns, including 116 total yards and a score to Travis Etienne Jr. last week

When red-zone control meets the league’s most generous running back touchdown defense, one score is the expectation.

My #1 pick is below. Quick reminder: last MNF top pick was Pat Freiermuth: U 34.5 Rec Yards. He finished with 1 catch for 18 yards. Easy cash.

Today's pick is ready.