Saturday

Saturday football is back. Two divisional matchups, two chances to find value. Eagles vs. Commanders and Packers vs. Bears both have soft numbers the market missed… in two minutes or less

#5 - S. Barkley: O 95.5 Rush + Rec Yards

Saquon Barkley is playing for real money this week, and the workload plus matchup both point to a ceiling outcome.

• Barkley needs 287 scrimmage yards to unlock a $250,000 incentive, and he has zero touch competition with 20+ touches in back-to-back games
• Washington allows the 3rd-most total yards to running backs this season, a matchup that consistently feeds volume-based backs
• Over the last 5 games, Washington ranks 3rd-worst in yards per carry allowed at 5.2 and 2nd-worst in run success rate allowed at 54.6%

They’ve already allowed multiple RB1 ceiling games in this stretch, so incentive-driven volume pushes Barkley straight past this number.

#4 - D. Goedert: O 4.5 Targets

Dallas Goedert’s role has quietly expanded, and the matchup makes even modest volume extremely valuable.

• Washington allows the most fantasy points per target and the most yards per target at 9.3 to tight ends this season
• Goedert has seen 17 targets over the last two games, including a 38.9% target share in one, his highest usage of the season
• Washington also allows a 3rd-worst touchdown rate to tight ends, reinforcing that tight end targets convert efficiently

Against the league’s softest tight end defense, five targets is a clear floor, not an aggressive ask. But my #1 pick on this slate plays for the same team is will dominate on the ground.

#3 - M. Mariota: U 199.5 Pass Yards

Marcus Mariota’s fantasy output can hide how difficult sustained passing will be in this matchup.

• Philadelphia allows the 8th-fewest passing yards on the season and just 119 passing yards per game over the last three games
• The Eagles rank 4th-best in passing points allowed, holding quarterbacks to a league-low 56.2% completion rate
• Philadelphia also allows a league-low 2.8% passing touchdown rate, sharply capping passing ceilings

Mariota relied on late-game volume last week, and this defense rarely allows that script to repeat.

#2 - J. Jacobs: O 0.5 Total TDs

Josh Jacobs continues to be one of the most reliable touchdown scorers in football.

• Jacobs has scored in 10 of his 12 complete games this season, an elite consistency rate
• Washington allows the 7th-most touchdowns to running backs on the season
• Over the last three games, the Commanders have allowed 5 running back touchdowns, one of the worst recent red-zone trends in the league

Even with managed snaps, Jacobs still controls the highest-value touches, and one conversion is all this needs.

My #1 Pick for Saturday

These are the clearest edges on the slate and the most likely number to move. It’s preloaded and ready.

👉Tap HERE to open the Gambly slip and lock it in

That’s the list. Two rivalries, two chances to find an edge before everyone else does

-Joe

P.S. You can get a free $20 (no deposit necessary) on SLEEPER if you sign up using code HOLKA9