Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.

We are turning $25 into $1,100 with this 6-leg Saturday parlay

Let’s keep the heater going… 👇 👇

By the way, my process starts and ends with EV Analytics, so I want to thank them for sponsoring today’s newsletter 👇

• 2x Bankroll Builder: Low-risk plays designed for steady, consistent growth—ideal for building a solid betting foundation.

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We’re already off and running!

I just posted 5 more plays for Week 16… get in there!

Saturday Best Bets (HOU @ KC) (PIT @ BAL)

#6

👇X. Worthy: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

Best Multiplier: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Worthy’s versatility and high-value opportunities make him a strong candidate to find the end zone this week. Houston’s defense has been exposed repeatedly by big plays, allowing the MOST TOUCHDOWNS TO WIDE RECEIVERS FROM OUTSIDE THE RED ZONE this season. This aligns perfectly with Worthy’s ability to capitalize on splash plays, as evidenced by his 21-yard rushing touchdown last week.

This game’s pace further boosts Worthy’s chances—projected for 132.5 OFFENSIVE PLAYS (3RD-HIGHEST on the slate), it creates additional scoring opportunities. But the key stat is Worthy’s role near the goal line—he leads the Chiefs in RED-ZONE TARGET SHARE over the past five weeks, ensuring he remains a focal point in scoring situations. So, with multiple ways to get into the end zone, Worthy’s odds of hitting this projection are too strong to ignore.

👇N. Collins: O 6.5 rec

Best line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

(ladder this at 5.5 and 3.5 on PrizePicks & Sleeper)

Collins is poised for a breakout game in one of the best setups he’s had all season. Projected for 9.8 TARGETS—ranking in the 95TH PERCENTILE—his involvement in Houston’s offense makes him the centerpiece of their passing attack. This matchup couldn’t be more favorable. Kansas City’s man coverage-heavy scheme (7TH-HIGHEST RATE) plays directly into Collins’ strengths, as he’s averaged an ELITE 3.15 YARDS PER ROUTE RUN against man coverage this season.

Kansas City also allows the 9TH-HIGHEST COMPLETION RATE to wide receivers (67.4%), further boosting Collins’ potential for efficiency. The Texans are expected to pass on 60.3% OF PLAYS this week, the 9TH-HIGHEST RATE in the NFL, ensuring a pass-heavy game script. But the most compelling factor is Collins’ consistency—he’s averaging 5.7 ADJUSTED CATCHES PER GAME this season (92ND PERCENTILE). So, with a favorable matchup and elite volume, this pick feels like a lock.

#4

👇 J. Mixon: U 85.5 rush+rec

Best line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Mixon faces one of the most brutal defensive matchups possible, and his recent inefficiency makes this projection almost impossible to hit. Kansas City has been a wall against running backs, allowing the FEWEST RUSHING YARDS PER GAME (91) and the FEWEST RECEIVING YARDS PER GAME (20) to the position this season.

Mixon’s form adds to the concern—he’s rushed for fewer than 2.0 YARDS PER CARRY in three of his last five games, showcasing a noticeable lack of burst even before his recent ankle injury. But it’s not just about Mixon’s struggles—Kansas City’s safeties and linebackers rank 4TH-BEST in the NFL at defending running backs in both the rushing and passing game. So, with a tough matchup and limited efficiency, this projection feels far too high for Mixon to overcome.

#3

👇T. Kelce: O 49.5 rec yards

Best line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Kelce’s recent numbers may seem underwhelming, but this is the week to capitalize on his value. Houston has struggled mightily against tight ends over the past five games, allowing the 2ND-MOST RECEIVING YARDS PER GAME (71.2) and 6.6 CATCHES PER GAME—the MOST in the NFL. These trends align perfectly with Kelce’s elite role in Kansas City’s offense.

Projected for 8.6 TARGETS—ranking in the 98TH PERCENTILE among tight ends—Kelce’s opportunity remains undeniable. Kansas City is expected to operate at a pass-heavy 60.3% RATE this week (9TH-HIGHEST), and this game is projected for 132.5 OFFENSIVE PLAYS—the 3RD-HIGHEST total on the slate. But what truly sets Kelce apart is his efficiency. Even in a quieter stretch, he’s maintained 60 AIR YARDS PER GAME (99TH PERCENTILE). So, with a high-volume game script and Houston’s inability to slow down tight ends, Kelce smashing this number feels inevitable.

#2

👇 L. Jackson: U 225.5 pass yards

Best line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

Jackson’s ceiling feels capped in this matchup against a Steelers defense that knows how to limit him. The Ravens operate at the 2ND-SLOWEST PACE in the NFL and are projected to pass on just 49.7% OF PLAYS this week—the 4TH-LOWEST RATE among all teams. This run-heavy game script severely limits Jackson’s passing volume, making this number difficult to reach.

The Steelers have already shown they can contain Jackson, holding him to 217 PASSING YARDS and one touchdown in Week 11, his lowest-scoring game this season. But the real challenge comes from Pittsburgh’s defense—they pressure quarterbacks on 40% OF DROPBACKS, and Jackson averages just 2.8 YARDS PER ATTEMPT under pressure. So, with limited volume and a tough defensive matchup, this projection feels way out of reach.

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