Puka Nacua’s role and efficiency create one of the safest receiving-yard profiles on the slate, and the matchup sharpens it further.

• Averaging 107 receiving yards per game on the season, establishing an elite weekly floor
• Finished first in the NFL in yards per route run and first in target rate per route, confirming volume plus efficiency
• Carolina allows the third-most yards per target to WR1s, and against Cover 3 Nacua earns 34.6% of team targets with 4.59 yards per route

When the top efficiency receiver in football faces a defense he already beats by scheme, this number sits too low.

Rico Dowdle’s receiving role continues to outperform this number, and the matchup reinforces it.

• Averaging 22 receiving yards over his last seven games, well above the projection
• Rams allow the fifth-most receiving yards and seventh-most receptions to running backs on the season
• Over their last three games, Los Angeles has allowed 61 receiving yards per game to running backs

When recent usage meets a defense bleeding running back targets, this number clears comfortably. My #1 picks is another RB looking to find pay dirt.

Tetairoa McMillan continues to profile as a one-play receiver, and this matchup keeps that ceiling intact.

• Cleared this longest-reception number in five of his last seven games, showing repeatable big-play ability
• Owns 43.3% of team air yards, second-highest in the league, confirming a downfield-weighted role
• Runs 85% of routes outside, where the Rams allow 9.3 yards per target, ranked 28th

When a receiver with elite air-yard share only needs one clean look against a weak perimeter defense, this becomes a true one-play outcome.

Harrison Mevis keeps benefiting from both form and environment, which is exactly what drives kicking points.

• Cleared this number in four of his last five games, averaging 10.4 kicking points
• Rams carry the highest team total of Wild Card Weekend, maximizing scoring chances
• Opposing kickers have surpassed this number in back-to-back games against Carolina

When the best scoring environment on the slate meets consistent kicker volume, this outcome is straightforward.

Christian Watson’s role is built for explosive plays, and Chicago’s defense continues to invite them.

• Accounts for 35.5% of Green Bay’s air yards since returning, ranking 13th among wide receivers
• Averages 2.54 yards per route run over that span, ranked ninth
• Bears allow 9.1 yards per target to wide receivers, ranked 30th, and rank 31st in deep-ball catch rate allowed with nine deep touchdowns surrendered

When an offense’s primary vertical threat faces a defense that struggles to defend the deep ball, one connection is all it takes.