Dowdle’s role and incentives are perfectly aligned for immediate involvement.

• Handled 75% of his team’s carries last week, confirming lead-back usage entering this game
• Has $1.25 million in incentives, with the primary trigger requiring just 7 total scrimmage yards
• Tampa Bay allows the most receiving yards to running backs, creating a clean checkdown path

With the incentive threshold sitting far below the projection, normal passing-game usage pushes this number past 16.5 without needing spike plays.

McCaffrey’s receiving role aligns perfectly with Seattle’s defensive profile.

• Saw 10 targets in the first matchup against Seattle
• The Seahawks force the most targets to running backs over the season
• Seattle allows the 6th-most receiving yards to the position

With 110 receiving yards needed to reach 1,000, the usage aligns naturally, making 4.5 receptions the expectation. My #1 pick is facing off against CMC for the #1 seed in the NFC.

McMillan already showed how this matchup plays out.

• Logged 10 targets for 73 yards and a touchdown in the previous meeting
• Tampa Bay forces the 9th-most targets to wide receivers over the season
• Jamel Dean enters the game banged up, weakening perimeter coverage

With a win clinching the NFC South and the No. 4 seed, passing aggression stays high and McMillan’s usage repeats.

Evans’ volume tightens when Tampa’s season is on the line.

• Averaging 9 targets per game over his last three games since returning from injury
• Saw 9 targets in the first matchup against Carolina, confirming matchup-specific volume
• The Panthers allow the 5th-most production to opposing wide receiver 1s over the season

In a must-win spot for Tampa Bay, reception concentration stays locked on Evans, making 4.5 a floor outcome.

Darnold’s recent form and game context demand volume.

• Cleared 240.5 passing yards in three of his last four games
• Seattle has allowed the 6th-most passing touchdowns over the season
• This is a winner-take-all game for the NFC West, with $1 million in passing incentives tied to yards and touchdowns

With seeding, money, and matchup all pointing toward aggression, this yardage total doesn’t hold across four quarters.

That’s the list. Two rivalries, two chances to find an edge before everyone else does

-Joe

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