LAR @ PHI

Rams vs. Eagles is the headline matchup, and I’ve locked in the sharpest edge on the board… in two minutes or less.

#5 - P. Nacua: O 69.5 Receiving Yards

Puka Nacua is the most reliable volume receiver in fantasy football right now. He leads the entire NFL in receptions and enters Week 3 with one of the highest floors at the position. He’s posted 110.5 receiving yards per game through two weeks, already clearing this projection twice without fluke plays or inflated usage. His role is stable with a 30.8% target share since the start of last year, and this week’s projection puts him in the 98th percentile in expected targets among all wide receivers.

What makes this matchup pop is how perfectly his skill set aligns with Philly’s biggest defensive flaw. The Eagles’ safeties have struggled for over a year, ranking as the third worst coverage unit at the position since the start of last season. This isn't hypothetical. Puka already averaged 107 yards per game against Philadelphia in 2023 across two meetings, proving he can produce at every level of the field.

With elite usage, perfect schematic leverage, and a struggling secondary on the other side, this number is set up to be crushed.

#4 - K. Williams: O 49.5 Rushing Yards

Kyren Williams is about to get fed. He’s projected for 17 rush attempts this week, which ranks in the 89th percentile for expected running back workload, and his touch share is elite with 73.8% of team carries this season. This isn't just a temporary spike either. Since last year, he’s averaged 83.0 adjusted rushing yards per game, one of the highest consistency marks among all backs.

And this is the exact matchup where he’s done damage before. In two games against Philadelphia last year, Kyren averaged 89 rushing yards per game, clearing this projection both times. The Eagles haven't fixed their run defense either. They just got bulldozed by the Cowboys backfield in Week 1, confirming their continued vulnerability to downhill running. With the Rams likely to lean on the ground game due to tempo and pass rate volatility, the setup couldn’t be better.

This number is simply too low for a workhorse in a familiar, beatable matchup.

#3 - D. Smith: U 59.5 Receiving Yards

DeVonta Smith is in a tough spot this week. He’s averaging just 34.5 receiving yards per game this season, well below this projection, and when he faced the Rams in the playoffs last year, he managed just 21 yards. The volume isn’t consistent, and the matchup won’t help him turn it around.

The Eagles passing game as a whole is underwhelming. Philadelphia currently ranks last in total passing yards this season, and their Week 3 projection has them throwing at just a 49.4% rate, the lowest in the league. On the other side, the Rams secondary has been elite. They’ve allowed the second lowest adjusted completion rate to wide receivers since last season and rank third best in limiting yards after the catch, which neutralizes short plays immediately.

With low volume, elite cornerback play, and Smith trending far below this number, it’s a clear fade.

#2 - J. Hurts: O 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns

Jalen Hurts is the most dangerous red zone quarterback in football, and this projection doesn’t account for how often he finds the end zone. He already has three rushing touchdowns in two games, and he’s projected for 9.6 rush attempts this week, the most of any quarterback. That’s not just scrambles. It’s designed runs, sneaks, and goal-line power.

The team context only strengthens the case. Hurts accounts for 26.9% of the Eagles' run game usage, and Philadelphia is projected to run the ball at a 50.6% rate, the highest in the NFL this week. That creates multiple goal-line chances, and the Rams defense ranks ninth worst in adjusted yards per carry allowed.

With elite red zone usage, a favorable matchup, and the highest rushing workload among quarterbacks, Hurts scoring again feels inevitable.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. One game, one number, and one clear edge—hit it now before the market catches up.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. this week only… You can get $50 after playing just $5 on DraftKings Pick6 if you sign up using code HOLKA