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Stefon Diggs’ role has shifted underneath, but his usage keeps his reception floor intact.

• Seattle forces the 5TH-MOST passing attempts in the NFL
• Diggs owns a team-high 23.3% target share in the postseason
• Plays 52.5% of his snaps from the slot, where Seattle allows 7.1 yards per target, ranking 12TH, compared to 6.5 on the outside, best in the league

When pass volume rises and targets funnel inside, receptions follow.

Hunter Henry’s touchdown equity remains, but his reception volume stays capped.

• Has not surpassed this number in three straight games
• Has topped four receptions in just four games all season
• Seattle allows tight ends to account for 28% of receptions, ranking 8TH, but limits the position to 6.1 receptions per game, ranking 27TH

When role skews toward scoring instead of steady volume, catch totals stay low. My #1 pick is a different Patriot who will beat his receiving prop.

Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing efficiency has been tested, but his total workload keeps his yardage floor intact.

• Has cleared this number in eight straight games
• Handled 25 touches last week compared to just three for Henderson
• No team has allowed more receptions to running backs than Seattle this season

When snap dominance and pass-game usage combine, total yardage stacks even in tough matchups.

You can’t build a card entirely off one side. If Seattle is going to be represented, fading Sam Darnold’s passing ceiling against this defense is the cleanest way to do it.

• Has surpassed this number just once over his last four games
• New England allowed the 9TH-FEWEST passing yards during the regular season, suppressing overall yardage
• The Patriots also ranked 9TH in explosive pass rate allowed, consistently cutting downfield opportunities

When a defense excels at limiting yardage and explosive plays, even a high-volume passer can be pushed below expectation.