Week 2 Locks

Week 2 is here and the board is loaded. I’ve locked in the strongest numbers the market missed… in two minutes or less.

#6 - T. McBride: O 7.5 Targets

McBride wasted no time proving he’s the engine of Arizona’s passing attack, commanding 9 targets in Week 1 and logging a 31% target share that tied for 2ND among all tight ends. That kind of usage isn’t an outlier either. He’s topped this number in 7 of his last 8 games, showing a consistent trend that puts him in the conversation with the most heavily featured TEs in football.

But the real key this week is the coverage matchup. Carolina runs Cover 3 at one of the HIGHEST rates in the league, and McBride absolutely SHREDS that look with over 30% of team targets and more than 3 yards per route run since last season. When you add that the Panthers just got beat for 5 catches, 65 yards, and a touchdown by Jacksonville’s tight ends in Week 1, it sets up the perfect storm. Everything about this game points to McBride being peppered again. This number is way too soft for a player entrenched as Arizona’s top safety valve.

#5 - J. Burrow: O 269.5 Pass Yards

Burrow’s opener was brutal on the stat sheet with just 113 yards at 4.9 yards per attempt, but we’ve seen this story before. He has thrown MULTIPLE touchdowns in 4 of his last 5 Week 2 games, proving he ALWAYS BOUNCES BACK in this exact spot.

The matchup is also night and day compared to Week 1. Cleveland pressured him on 42.9% of his dropbacks, the 4TH-HIGHEST rate of the week, while Jacksonville ranked just 21ST in pressure rate and played man coverage on only 8.3% of snaps (30TH). Burrow is getting a clean pocket against one of the most passive defensive approaches in football. The Jaguars have been a glaring pass funnel since last season, forcing opposing QBs into the 6TH-MOST pass attempts per game. With Burrow projected closer to 300 yards in this matchup and his receivers set for a much bigger role after a career-low WR target rate last week, this projection feels like a buy-low gift.

#4 - J. Chase: O 25.5 Longest Reception

Chase started slow with just 26 yards in Week 1, but don’t let that fool you. He’s cleared this longest-catch number in 7 of his last 8 games, and all the setup is here for another explosion.

The biggest key is Jacksonville’s coverage profile. They played Cover 3 on 52.8% of their snaps in Week 1, the 3RD-MOST in the league, and Chase DESTROYS Cover 3 with over 30% of targets and 3.41 yards per route run. Add in that the Jaguars have been one of the least efficient defenses against WRs since last season, allowing the 3RD-MOST receiving yards to the position and giving up 9.05 adjusted yards per target, and you’ve got a perfect storm. With Burrow projected to bounce back through the air and this defense already showing they can’t contain explosive plays in space, the odds of Chase ripping off a 26+ yard reception are about as strong as it gets. This one feels inevitable.

#3 - L. Jackson: O 7.5 Carries

Jackson is back in full MVP form, carving up Buffalo in Week 1 with 70 rushing yards on 9 attempts to go with two passing touchdowns. Now he gets a Cleveland defense that forces quarterbacks to run more than almost anyone else.

The Browns generated PRESSURE on 42.9% of dropbacks in Week 1, the 4TH-HIGHEST rate in the league, and they blitzed Jackson 34–36% of the time in both of their 2024 matchups. That aggressive style already produced results. Jackson carried 9 and 8 times in those games, finishing with 63 and 46 rushing yards. Even when Cleveland plays him tough, he produces with his legs, posting QB6 and QB9 fantasy finishes in those contests. Add in that Baltimore has the HIGHEST team total on the entire slate, and it’s clear the Ravens’ offense is built to keep the ball moving. This is exactly the type of game where Lamar leans on his rushing volume. Expect him to clear this number with room to spare.

#2 - J. Conner: O 69.5 Rush + Rec Yards

Conner’s box score from Week 1 with 44 yards on 16 touches doesn’t jump off the page, but the workload tells the real story. He out-touched Trey Benson by 7 and remained the clear lead back in every meaningful situation.

Now he faces a Panthers defense that was the WORST run defense in football last year, giving up the MOST rushing yards in the league, and it looks like nothing has changed. Carolina just got gashed for 173 rushing yards by Jacksonville backs in Week 1, including 143 yards from Travis Etienne alone. The matchup couldn’t be more favorable. Add in that Conner torched this same defense last year for 166 total yards and a touchdown, and the confidence here only grows. With his locked-in role, goal-line usage, and a defense that can’t stop anyone on the ground, this projection is simply WAY TOO LOW.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Week 2 locks don’t last long—hit these numbers before they move. 

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe