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Kawhi Leonard’s perimeter ceiling runs into a low-volume matchup.

• Has missed this in 6 straight home games
• Indiana has allowed the FEWEST three-point attempts in the NBA over their last 20 games
• Opposing starting small forwards attempt just 2.9 threes per game vs. the Pacers this season, the LOWEST in the NBA

When volume collapses, made threes follow.

Keyonte George’s all-around production aligns with a fast-paced, permissive defense.

• Has cleared this in 75% of his last 12 games, averaging 31.4 PRA
• Posted 34 PRA in his last matchup vs. Philadelphia
• The 76ers have allowed the 5TH-MOST points, 2ND-MOST rebounds, and 9TH-MOST assists over their last 10 games

Utah ranks 1ST in pace over their last 10 games, while Philadelphia ranks 4TH in pace at home over their last 5, boosting possession volume. My #1 picks has crushed his assist projection in 10 of his last 11 games, and is facing off against a squad that’s allowed the 2nd-most dimes over their last 5.

LaMelo Ball’s rebounding outlook shrinks in a slow, restrictive matchup.

• Has cleared this just once over his last 4 games
• Has missed this in both matchups vs. Boston this season, averaging 3 rebounds
• The Celtics have allowed the 2ND-FEWEST rebounds per game over their last 5 games

Charlotte ranks 28TH in pace over their last 20 games, while Boston plays at the SLOWEST pace in the NBA this year, limiting total rebound chances.

Jrue Holiday’s scoring form meets a defense trending vulnerable.

• Has cleared this in back-to-back games, averaging 24 points
• Has cleared this in 4 straight matchups vs. Memphis
• The Grizzlies have allowed the 4TH-MOST points over their last 15 games

Opposing starting point guards average 22.8 points per game vs. Memphis on the road this season, the 2ND-HIGHEST mark in the NBA, and attempt 5.2 free throws per game at Memphis, the MOST in the league.

Chet Holmgren’s outside shooting remains limited in a tight matchup.

• Has cleared this just once over his last 15 games, averaging fewer than 1 made three per game
• New York has allowed the 6TH-FEWEST three-point makes over their last 15 games
• Oklahoma City ranks LAST in offensive rebounds on the road this season, reducing second-chance kick-out looks

With limited volume and fewer extra possessions, three-point upside stays capped.