Wednesday 3/18

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#6 - J. Wells: O 1.5 3-Pointers

Jaylen Wells’ perimeter consistency meets a defense allowing volume from deep.

• Has cleared this in 10 straight games
• Has cleared this in back-to-back matchups vs. Denver, averaging 3 made threes
• The Nuggets have allowed the 4TH-MOST three-point makes in the NBA over their last 20 games

Denver ranks 5TH in pace over their last 5 games, and Memphis ranks 3RD in pace over their last 20 games, elevating attempt opportunities.

#5 - J. Holiday: O 26.5 PRA

Jrue Holiday’s all-around production aligns with pace and defensive vulnerability.

• Has cleared this in 4 of his last 6 games, averaging 31.5 PRA
• Cleared this in his last matchup vs. Indiana
• The Pacers have allowed the 2ND-MOST points in the NBA over their last 10 games

Indiana ranks 6TH in pace over their last 25 games, Portland ranks 6TH in pace over their last 20, and opposing starting PGs attempt 5.4 free throws per game vs. Indiana over their last 5 road games, the 7TH-MOST in the league. My #1 pick has crushed his projection in 9 of his last 10 games.

#4 - K. Durant: O 4.5 Rebounds

Kevin Durant’s rebounding consistency remains intact in a possession-friendly environment.

• Has cleared this in 88% of his last 16 games
• Has cleared this in 4 of his last 5 matchups vs. the Lakers, averaging 6.4 rebounds
• Houston ranks 1ST in offensive rebounds this season at 15.2 per game

Extended possessions sustain rebound opportunities on both ends.

#3 - D. Garland: O 2.5 3-Pointers

Darius Garland’s perimeter surge aligns with a defense surrendering high attempt rates.

• Has cleared this in 5 straight games, averaging 4.4 made threes
• The Pelicans have allowed the MOST three-point attempts in the NBA over their last 5 games
• Opposing starting PGs attempt 7.5 threes per game on the road vs. New Orleans, the 2ND-MOST in the league

New Orleans ranks 1ST in home pace over their last 5 games, increasing possession volume.

#2 - N. Jokic: O 10.5 Assists

Nikola Jokic’s playmaking ceiling aligns with a pace-driven matchup and a defense allowing high assist volume.

• Has cleared this in 5 straight games, averaging 13.2 assists
• Has cleared this in 3 straight matchups vs. Memphis
• The Grizzlies have allowed the 3RD-MOST assists in the NBA over their last 5 games

Denver ranks 5TH in pace over their last 5 games, and Memphis ranks 3RD in pace over their last 20 games, boosting total possessions.

Yesterday's #1 pick was C. Johnson: O 16.5 PRA

Result: 21 PRA.

That one hit.

Today's top pick is below.

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