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Isaiah Hartenstein’s recent form and matchup both suppress his rebounding and assist ceiling.

• Has missed this in 4 straight games, averaging 10.5 rebounds plus assists
• Has cleared this just once over his last 7 road games
• Detroit has allowed the FEWEST assists and 5TH-FEWEST rebounds over their last 20 games

With Oklahoma City ranking as the 6TH-SLOWEST team over their last 5 games and 30TH in offensive rebounds on the road this season (9.1 per game), extra possession chances are limited.

James Harden’s perimeter volume aligns with a defense allowing elevated three-point production.

• Has cleared this in 3 of his last 4 games
• Milwaukee has allowed the 2ND-MOST three-pointers made over their last 20 games
• Opposing starting point guards have attempted 7.3 threes per game vs. the Bucks over their last 10 games, the 5TH-MOST in the NBA

When attempt volume rises against a defense conceding perimeter shots, makes follow. My #1 pick is a different Cavs player who should smash his projection.

Nikola Jokic’s scoring ceiling runs into the league’s toughest recent defensive stretch.

• Has missed this in 3 straight home games, averaging 21 points
• Scored just 20 points in his last matchup vs. Boston
• The Celtics have allowed the FEWEST points in the NBA over their last 15 games

Boston plays at the SLOWEST pace in the league this season, and starting centers have averaged just 6 points combined over their last 3 games vs. the Celtics, the LOWEST mark in the NBA.

Gui Santos’ scoring rhythm meets a fast-paced, high-scoring matchup.

• Has cleared this in 6 of his last 7 games, including 16 vs. Memphis in that span
• Has cleared this in 4 straight road games
• The Grizzlies have allowed the MOST points in the NBA over their last 15 games

Golden State ranks 9TH in pace over their last 15 games, while Memphis ranks 2ND in pace over their last 10, boosting overall scoring opportunities.

Kevin Durant’s scoring and playmaking align with a defense trending downward.

• Has cleared this in 3 straight games, averaging 34 points plus assists
• Is averaging 31 Pts+Ast in 3 matchups vs. Sacramento this season
• The Kings have allowed the MOST points and 2ND-MOST assists over their last 5 games

Sacramento allows the 3RD-MOST threes per game to opposing starting small forwards (2.3), and Houston leads the NBA with 15.5 offensive rebounds per game, extending possessions.

J. Green: U 24.5 Pts+Ast cashed yesterday.

Finished with 14 Pts+Ast.

My next #1 pick is below.